Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - AUDUSD, NZDUSD and AUDNZD forming interesting corrective patterns. Stand by for break out
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AUDUSD and NZDUSD forming sideways corrective patterns. Are they reversal or continuation patterns? AUDNZD bouncing in a rising wedge pattern. Will it continue or resume bearish trend?
AUDUSD seems to be forming and Ascending triangle corrective pattern. Resistance at around 0.69. RSI is showing positive sentiment indicating break out is likely to the upside with potential to 0.71
If AUDUSD instead breaks below the short-term rising trendline in the Ascending triangle key support is at around 0.6630. A close below could fuel a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at 0.6446.
NZDUSD seems to be forming a Descending triangle like pattern. If NZDUSD closes below 0.6155 a sell-off down to around 0.60 is likely. The divergence on RSI indicates that is the likely direction.
However, if NZSUSD manages to break the short-term upper falling trendline and closes above 0.6375 a move above December peak to 0.6635 - 0.6775 is in the cards.
AUDNZD is trading in a rising wedge like pattern testing 0.382 retracement of the September to December downtrend. There is still room up to strong resistance around 1.00 where both 100 and 200 daily SMA’s will provide resistance. RSI above 60 indicates furht4er short- term upside.
If AUDNZD breaks below its steep rising trendline the down trend could resume with support at around 1.06. If that level is taken out December trough is likely to be tested.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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