Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - EURGBP resuming uptrend with potential to 1.3140. GBPUSD rebounding, will it also resume uptrend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURGBP has bounced from the 0.382 retracement and support at around 0.8530, thus resuming its uptrend.
EURGBP is likely to re-test the strong resistance around 0.8620–0.8625. A break of this resistance is likely, supported by the strength indicator RSI, which shows positive sentiment and no divergence
A break and close above 0.8625 is likely to push EURGBP higher, above the resistance at 0.8644, to the 0.8630–0.8683 level short-term.
On the weekly chart, EURGBP has broken above its upper falling trendline. A close above the 0.8645 level could pave the way higher towards strong resistance at around 0.8765 in the medium-term, i.e., end-2024 to early 2025.
An RSI close above the 60 threshold on the weekly chart will confirm and support the bullish outlook for EURGBP.
A daily close below 0.8525 will demolish this bullish scenario, at least in the short-term, and likely send the pair down to 0.8475
EURGBP is likely to re-test the strong resistance around 0.8620–0.8625. A break of this resistance is likely, supported by the strength indicator RSI, which shows positive sentiment and no divergence
A break and close above 0.8625 is likely to push EURGBP higher, above the resistance at 0.8644, to the 0.8630–0.8683 level short-term.
On the weekly chart, EURGBP has broken above its upper falling trendline. A close above the 0.8645 level could pave the way higher towards strong resistance at around 0.8765 in the medium-term, i.e., end-2024 to early 2025.
An RSI close above the 60 threshold on the weekly chart will confirm and support the bullish outlook for EURGBP.
A daily close below 0.8525 will demolish this bullish scenario, at least in the short-term, and likely send the pair down to 0.8475
GBPUSD last week formed a doji morning-like pattern (circled), which signals a bottom and reversal. This scenario has been highlighted in my Daily Technical Update videos published here on SaxoTrader and on my YouTube channel where you can subscribe to daily updates: Cramer's Corner YouTube
GBPUSD has so far rebounded around 50% but could rebound further. However, the key question is whether RSI will close above the 60 threshold or not.
Currently, RSI is showing negative sentiment, but a daily close above 60 will reverse that and support further upside potential for GBPUSD.
A daily close above the 0.618 retracement at 1.29, combined with an RSI close above 60, will support a scenario where GBPUSD is pushing higher to the 2023 peak around 1.3135.
If on the other hand, RSI fails to close above 60 and is instead rejected, last week’s bottom and reversal pattern could be challenged and possibly cancelled.
Medium-term on the weekly chart: GBPUSD is trading in a rising trend/wedge-like pattern. Weekly RSI is showing positive sentiment, supporting higher GBPUSD levels to the 1.3135–1.3145 level.
A close below 1.2660 will establish a bearish trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...