Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP and Dollar Index
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD could resume downtrend. Looking at 1.0220 level or will it break falling trendline?
GBPUSD seems heavy and could drop to 1.1840
EURGBP seems to be more succesful this time breaking the 0.87 resistance
Dollar Index. Despite weakening uptrend it could reach 107.90
EURUSD once again got rejected at the upper falling trendline in the falling channel pattern it has been trading for the past three months
Breaking above the falling trendline is minimum requirement for EURUSD to have another go a the strong resistance at around 1.0635.
If EURUSD instead is sliding back below 1.0490 i.e., last week’s lows the bearish trend is resuming likely sending EURUSD to close below 1.0480.
From the weekly chart we can see how important the 1.0480 support is. A weekly close below is quite likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 102.20
GBPUSD has resumed down trend and is likely to test support at around 1.2012
A break below that level could see further selling pressure down to around 1.18.
RSI is showing negative sentiment with minor divergence. But an RSI close below its rising (dashed blue) trendline would be a strong indication of the bearish move towards 1.18 is very likely to play out
EURGBP is having another attempt of breaking the key resistance at around 0.87. This time it might be successful of staying above. Minor resistance at around 0.8735 but ERUGBP could move higher to strong resistance at around 0.8820
If EURGBP is sliding back to close below 0.87 it is likely to drop all the way back to 0.86
Dollar Index Key strong support at 105.34. A close below is likely to fuel a sell-off down to 104.39 support level.
However, currently the uptrend is intact despite RSI divergence indicating weakening of the uptrend.
If the Dollar Index is breaking above 106.57 a move to strong resistance at around 107.90 is in the cards.
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