Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY rebounding strongly. EURJPY and AUDJPY Set for key tests. GBPJPY breaking key resistance
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY has bounced from the 0.786 retracement (blue Fibonacci levels) at 143.33, broken above its upper falling trendline and is close to touch the 0.618 retracement (black Fibonacci levels) at 147.12. USDJPY could rebound to the 0.786 retracement at 148.12.
To establish a bullish trend a daily close above 149.40 is required.
Strength and trend indicator RSI is still showing negative sentiment but with divergence as illustrated by the two blue lines – the closing price 27th August was lower than the 5th August closing price. That is an indication of a trend exhaustion supporting the rebound scenario
To reverse this rebound picture a daily close below 143.40 is required.
To establish a bullish trend a daily close above 149.40 is required.
Strength and trend indicator RSI is still showing negative sentiment but with divergence as illustrated by the two blue lines – the closing price 27th August was lower than the 5th August closing price. That is an indication of a trend exhaustion supporting the rebound scenario
To reverse this rebound picture a daily close below 143.40 is required.
EURJPY is bouncing from key support at around 160.55.
The bounce comes after EURJPY has dipped below the support a few times but ended above every single time and now seems set to test the key strong resistance at around 164.00.
A daily close above 164.00 is likely to fuel a rally towards 167-168. In that area the 55 and the 100 DMA’s are coming down likely restricting further upside potential short-term
A break and close below 160.00 expect selling pressure to resume with potential down to 159.00-156.45.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and if RSI is seen back below the 40 threshold it would be strong indication of EURJPY to turn bearish
The bounce comes after EURJPY has dipped below the support a few times but ended above every single time and now seems set to test the key strong resistance at around 164.00.
A daily close above 164.00 is likely to fuel a rally towards 167-168. In that area the 55 and the 100 DMA’s are coming down likely restricting further upside potential short-term
A break and close below 160.00 expect selling pressure to resume with potential down to 159.00-156.45.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and if RSI is seen back below the 40 threshold it would be strong indication of EURJPY to turn bearish
AUDJPY seems to be establishing a bullish trend after breaking above minor resistance at around 99.04.
If closing above 99.91 and RSI is closing above 60 threshold, a bullish trend will be confirmed.
Upside potential to the 0.618 retracement at 102.05
A daily close below 97.25 will demolish the bullish picture and establish a bearish move
If closing above 99.91 and RSI is closing above 60 threshold, a bullish trend will be confirmed.
Upside potential to the 0.618 retracement at 102.05
A daily close below 97.25 will demolish the bullish picture and establish a bearish move
GBPJPY is breaking above resistance at around 192.00. If closing above a bullish trend has been established.
An RSI close above 60 threshold will confirm the bullish scenario with sort-term upside potential to the 0.786 retracement at 195.33.
It all depends on whether RSI can close above 60 threshold or not:
If rejected GBPJPY could slide back and test the support at around 188.93.
A close below will establish bearish trend
An RSI close above 60 threshold will confirm the bullish scenario with sort-term upside potential to the 0.786 retracement at 195.33.
It all depends on whether RSI can close above 60 threshold or not:
If rejected GBPJPY could slide back and test the support at around 188.93.
A close below will establish bearish trend
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