Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Rebound in AUDUSD and AUDJPY facing strong resistance. Where to next?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The rebound in AUDUSD seems to have hit a roadblock around the 0.618 retracement at 0.6626 and is now seems to be caught in a tight range between 0.6645 and 0.6565.
A breakout from this range is needed for direction.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above the 60 threshold to confirm a bullish trend for AUDUSD.
If that scenario plays out—AUDUSD breaks 0.6645 and RSI closes above 60—AUDUSD is likely to push higher to the 0.786 retracement at 0.67.
If RSI fails to close above 60, AUDUSD is likely to slide back lower.
A break below 0.6575 could see AUDUSD resuming its downtrend with potential down to around 0.6475.
A breakout from this range is needed for direction.
The strength indicator RSI is still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above the 60 threshold to confirm a bullish trend for AUDUSD.
If that scenario plays out—AUDUSD breaks 0.6645 and RSI closes above 60—AUDUSD is likely to push higher to the 0.786 retracement at 0.67.
If RSI fails to close above 60, AUDUSD is likely to slide back lower.
A break below 0.6575 could see AUDUSD resuming its downtrend with potential down to around 0.6475.
AUDJPY's rebound took the pair above resistance at around 97.83, with room up to resistance at around 99.91, where the 200 DMA will add to resistance strength.
However, if AUDJPY slides back below 96.75, a sell-off could be fueled with downside potential to 93.65.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment, and if it closes back below 40, it could be the first indication of the bearish scenario playing out.
However, if AUDJPY slides back below 96.75, a sell-off could be fueled with downside potential to 93.65.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment, and if it closes back below 40, it could be the first indication of the bearish scenario playing out.
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