Technical Update - JPY pairs pushing higher but how high?

Technical Update - JPY pairs pushing higher but how high?

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  USDJPY struggling to break 2022 peak and resistance
EURJPY moving higher eyeing 163-165
AUDJPY volatile but likely to push towards 2022 peak
GBPJPY testing key resistance, eyeing 190


USDJPY yesterday was once again rejected at the 2022 peak at around 151.94. A minor setback could be seen possibly down to around 150 before another attempt.

If USDJPY breaks below 148.80 a larger correction is likely.

RSI divergence shows that the uptrend is weakening. This divergence needs to be traded out and can be done in two ways; either a higher close above 152 or a correction  likely below 148.80

However, a USDJPY close above 152 could lead to a swift rally to the 1.618 projection at 153.28 but not unlikely a bullish move to the 2.0 projection at 154.25

usdjpy d 1411
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

EURJPY is moving higher day by day getting close to the 1.618 projection at around 163.12. RSI is positive with no divergence indicating higher EURJPY levels i.e., a move to around 165 is in the cards.
It should be noted however, that there is no strong resistance until around 170 which the 2008 peak

Reaching 1.618 projection a correction should be expected. But the uptrend is intact until a close below 159

eurjpy d 1411

AUDJPY is once again trying to get back above 96.83 resistance. The bullish is likely to take the pair higher as indicated by positive. RSI sentiment. A break back above 96.83 is likely to fuel another rally that could very well take out the resistance at around 97.67 and push AUDJPY to 2022 peak at around 98.55

A close below 96.00 will demolish the bullish scenario and quite likely sending AUDJPY down to around 95
audjpy d 1411

GBPJPY is close to be testing August peak at around 186.86. A close above would pave the road to the 190 level i.e., the 1.382 projection
Positive RSI is supporting the bullish view.

However, there is some resistance at around 188.80 (back from 2015)

A close below 184.45 will demolish the bullish picture
gbpjpy d 1411

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.