Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY rejected at the peak from 3rd October where market went crazy forming this tall candle marking a range that USDJPY needs to break for direction. 150.15 to the upside and 147.30 to the downside.
However, if USDJPY is breaking below its rising trendline since the forming of the candle it could be an indication of USDJPY testing the lower band of the range.
A close above 150.15 is likely to see USDJPY shooting up to 2022 peak at around 152.
RSI has been showing divergence (i.e., imbalance where the strength indicating is declining when instrument is making new higher highs) for the past couple of months indicating weakening of the bullish trend. A correction is needed.
If USDJPY is breaking below the rising trend line the lower band of the range at 147.30 is likely to be tested.
However, if USDJPY breaks higher closing above 150.15 that divergence is likely to be cancelled paving the road to 152
EURJPY was once again rejected at key resistance at around 159.75. Uptrend is intact however, EURJPY is above the Cloud (Shaded area) i.e., in bullish trend and sentiment indicating the cross could have another go at the resistance shortly.
A close above 159.75 could fuel a rally higher to 161.80 -163.90
The RSI has broken above its falling trendline and above 60 threshold i.e., now showing positive sentiment indicating EURJPY is likely to break higher
If EURJPY is sliding back below 156.75 support at around 155.52 is likely to come under pressure
AUDJPY got rejected once again the 95.85 resistance level. But with the higher lows as indicated by the lower rising trendline AUDJPY is likely to have yet another go at the 95.85
RSI is in positive sentiment supporting the view of AUDJPY is likely to break higher.
A close above 95.85 next resistance is at around 96.82 – where it actually shot up to last time it broke above 95.85 - and 98.55.
If AUDJPY is breaking below its lower rising trendline a bearish move to the support at around 93.55 and even 92.80 could be seen
RSI is in positive sentiment supporting the view of AUDJPY is likely to break higher.
A close above 95.85 next resistance is at around 96.82 – where it actually shot up to last time it broke above 95.85 - and 98.55.
If AUDJPY is breaking below its lower rising trendline a bearish move to the support at around 93.55 and even 92.80 could be seen
GBPJPY is caught range bound between 179.80 and 183.90. Break out needed for direction.
A break above 184 is likely to fuel a rally to August peak around 186.75 possibly shooting higher to 188.82 level
CHFJPY broke above resistance at around 166.58 a few days ago. It could very well test the 166.58 level from the upper side before moving higher.
RSI is supporting higher CHFJPY levels. A bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 170.72 is in the cards.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...