Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY is moving higher after breaking the strong resistance at 142.25. The uptrend is short-term quite stretched but RSI is, despite flattening, not showing divergence suggesting higher levels are likely.
USDJPY is close to resistance at around 145.30 and a minor correction down to its lower rising trendline could be seen before uptrend is likely to resume.
USDJPY is forming a Rising Wedge like pattern and if USDJPY closes below the lower trendline a larger correction could occur.
Medium-term trend is up with USDJPY approaching the 0.786 retracement (weekly chart) at 146.60.
EURJPY uptrend seems to be stalling and a correction could be seen possibly down to the 0.382 retracement and support at around 154.41.
RSI is bullish with no divergence indicating EURJPY is likely to move higher after a correction.
A close below 154.00 is likely to fuel a larger correction down to 0.618 retracement at 152.28 and the lower rising trendline.
Medium-term EURJPY is testing the resistance at around 157. Also on the weekly chart is RSI bullish with no divergence indicating EURJPY is likely to move higher.
GBPJPY is ripe for a correction with divergence on RSI. A correction down to the lower rising trendline should be expected possibly dipping down to the 0.382 retracement at around 174.00
Medium-term there is still uptrend potential with no resistnace until around 188. Bullish RSI with no divergence is indicating GBPJPY is likely to move higher.
AUDJPY has an ongoing correction that could dip down to the 0.382 retracement at around 94.84. During the correction AUDJPY seems to be forming a Pennant like formation (a small wedge) which is often seen during a correction phase.
With no RSI divergence AUDJPY is likely to move higher above June peak at 97.67 after a correction
Medium-to longer-term AUDJPY is in an uptrend. Strong resistance at around 97.50. RSI is positive and no divergence indicating AUDJPY could make a new high. AUDJPY is likely to have another go at the 97.50 resistance and likely penetrate it. If that scenario plays out a move towards 103.30 could be seen
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