Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar rally looking stretched, bullish signals for NZD
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: With hawkish vibes since the start of the year from Fed pushback and jobs/inflation data surprises, the gap between market expectations for Fed’s 2024 rate cuts and the December dot plot has nearly closed. Dollar positioning has also turned to a net long, suggesting the bar for further gains may be high. China markets have returned with optimism after the Lunar New Year holiday, but the sustainability of the trend will be one to watch and that can support CNH and AUD, while NZD looks more compelling amid room for RBNZ rate cut delay and a technical buy signal.
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Other recent Macro/FX articles:
19 Feb: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
15 Feb: Swiss Franc’s bearish view gets more legs
14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
13 Feb: Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening
9 Feb: Japanese Yen is throwing a warning
8 Feb: FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar
5 Feb: Weekly FX Chartbook: More and more reasons to stay long US dollar
1 Feb: FOMC out, BOE and NFP next – will the hawkish waves continue?
30 Jan: USD remains a tough sell even with a dovish Fed outcome
29 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: Earnings and geopolitics to take the focus away from Powell
25 Jan: US PCE Preview: March rate cut bets could pick up again
24 Jan: Markets could start to price in a Trump presidency
24 Jan: ECB Preview: Will EUR pay heed to the pushback to April cut expectations?
23 Jan: Podcast: Central banks and key figures run the show
22 Jan: Video: The Curious Investor - Q1 2024 FX and Commodities Outlook
22 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: Soft-landing hopes and US exceptionalism will remain at play
19 Jan: A reality check on Bank of Japan’s policy normalization and JPY appreciation expectations
15 Jan: Weekly FX Chartbook: UK data will be a test of GBP resilience
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