background image

Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism

Forex 5 minutes to read
Charu Chanana 400x400
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Summary:  After a heavy week of dovish undertones from the key central banks last week, focus has returned to US exceptionalism coming in sharp contrast to the need for bringing forward rate cut bets from the likes of Bank of England or Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Chinese yuan is also under scrutiny after flip-flop in PBOC fixing potentially as a result of yen weakness extending further. Earnings from property developers and banks in focus in China this week, and could have repercussions for CNH and AUD.


25_FX_Weekly
Dollar strength returned to the fore last week with a summer of rate cuts looking likely and prompting dovish repricing for other major central banks after a surprise SNB rate cut, but Gold still held up well.
25_FX_Momentum
Our FX Scorecard shows momentum turning negative for Silver and sterling, while USD strength could become the key theme again.
25_FX_Positioning
Forex COT to the week of March 19 indicated non-commercial flows heavily tilting towards a long dollar positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting. This was led by a 35% reduction in EUR longs and 24% reduction in GBP longs. In addition, shorts in JPY, AUD and CHF increased further.
25_FX_Views

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Other recent Macro/FX articles:

25 Mar: Global Market Quick Take - Asia
22 Mar: Swiss National Bank’s bold move will kickstart the G10 rate cut cycle
20 Mar: Thematic Podcast: Japan's route to abolish negative interest rates
20 Mar: Japan’s exit from negative rates: Implications for the economy, yen and stocks
19 Mar: FOMC rate decision: How to trade the event
18 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Central bank meetings all over
18 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: Heavy central bank focus as FOMC, BOJ, BOE, SNB, RBA meet
14 Mar: FOMC vs. BOJ: Who moves the Yen?
12 Mar: Dampening equity sentiment could test GBP resilience
11 Mar: US inflation report: How to trade the event
11 Mar: Macro & FX Podcast: Have soft landing hopes turned into expectations?
11 Mar: Weekly FX Chartbook: JPY eying wage talk headlines and US CPI
6 Mar: Bitcoin fever is running high, again
5 Mar: FX & Macro Podcast: US jobs data, China's "Two Sessions" & Super Tuesday
28 Feb: Navigating Japanese equities: Strategies for hedging JPY exposure
23 Feb: Nvidia momentum spills over to FX markets
21 Feb: Central bank divergence on the radar: Hawkish RBNZ, Dovish BOC and SNB
19 Feb: Macro & FX Podcast: How the debate about the US economy has shifted
15 Feb: Swiss Franc’s bearish view gets more legs
14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
9 Feb: Japanese Yen is throwing a warning
8 Feb: FX 101: USD Smile and portfolio impacts from King Dollar

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.