Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Chart of the Week: Japan machine tool orders
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: An often overlooked and somewhat old fashioned Japanese economic indicator speaks volumes about the increasingly depressing industrial landscape.
Japan machine tool orders is an old school business cycle indicator. It is not so popular nowadays, though it still points to very interesting signals about the economy and how it is performing. Since the beginning of 2018, orders have experienced a sharp collapse, which is worse than during the China turmoil of 2015-16, as you can see in the below chart.
The last print for the month of February is at minus 29% YoY. Orders could slide further in coming months since buyers remain very cautious about investing decisions and are reluctant to take the last step and sign a contract. As a direct consequence, it is likely to push machine tool makers to rethink their own investment plans and maybe cut jobs. This negative trend in orders is mostly explained by trade wars, as a final agreement between the US and China is still out of reach, and China’s slowdown is expected to continue before stabilisation in Q3 2019. This is another indicator that underlines the current risks to growth and confirms we are approaching the end of the current business cycle.
The last print for the month of February is at minus 29% YoY. Orders could slide further in coming months since buyers remain very cautious about investing decisions and are reluctant to take the last step and sign a contract. As a direct consequence, it is likely to push machine tool makers to rethink their own investment plans and maybe cut jobs. This negative trend in orders is mostly explained by trade wars, as a final agreement between the US and China is still out of reach, and China’s slowdown is expected to continue before stabilisation in Q3 2019. This is another indicator that underlines the current risks to growth and confirms we are approaching the end of the current business cycle.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...