Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
This week started with gloomy sentiment after Easter holiday, as low risk appetite amongst investors increased demand for haven assets like Gold, which reached an all-time high. US Dollar selling bias over trade-related uncertainties & Fed rate cut bets contributed to bearish USD sentiment, taking USD to 3-year lows with EURUSD passing 1.156 and USDJPY passing 140 level. Large earnings from Tesla, Alphabet & Intel also featured, while markets were looking for stability clues in US/China trade war rhetoric. Read more below: Golden Surge Intel earnings forecast disappoints Alphabet presents strong start to the year Tesla miss estimates - investors optimistic on Musk return Next week will the peak of the US earnings season with 4 of the magnificent 7 companies reporting - Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple – including many other heavy hitters like Visa and Eli Lilly. In Europe we see releases from ING and Banco Santander and car manufacturers Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen. Key economic data includes the monthly US labor market report.
Gold was once again in the spotlight, this week surging to a new all-time high of USD 3,500. A combination of trade-related uncertainties & geopolitical developments amongst other things contributed to general risk-off sentiment, driving demand for haven assets like gold. Weaker US dollar helped XAUUSD to 3,500 before a sharp reversal. Ole Hansen outlines the picture on Gold and its drivers:
Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode
Intel's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed a mixed performance. The company reported a revenue of $12.7 billion, which was flat year-over-year, and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.13. Despite these solid results, Intel's guidance for Q2 2025 was cautious, forecasting an EPS of $0.00 per share, which disappointed analysts. The company is taking steps to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. Intel’s Q1 earnings: painful losses highlight tough road ahead
Alphabet, on the other hand, reported strong Q1 2025 results with a 12% increase in revenue to $90.2 billion. The growth was driven by robust performance across Google Search, YouTube ads, Google subscriptions, and Google Cloud. Alphabet's net income rose by 46%, and EPS increased by 49% to $2.81. The company also announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend.
Alphabet delivers powerful Q1 earnings: AI pushes profits higher amid storm clouds
Tesla's reported earnings that fell short of estimates with automotive revenue falling 20% year-over-year as Tesla's sales were hurt amid a backlash to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement. However, Musk said that he will start scaling back his government work next month. Musk also said plans for a cheaper Tesla model and fully self-driving vehicles remain on track. Shares of Tesla were up nearly 6% in after-market trading following the news.
Tesla profits plunge – but Musk’s return recharges investor enthusiasm