Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Last week marked the worst week for major US markets since October following a storming run which has lasted for months. Investors look to some profit taking as valuations become stretched and there was a late slip for Nvidia shares which finished down more than 5% on Friday 8th March.
Markets intensified bets on the chance that the Bank of Japan might exit the world’s last remaining negative-rates regime, maybe as soon as this month.
As well as cryptocurrencies reaching new highs, gold spiked to a new multi-decade high backed by market confidence the Fed and ECB will start their cutting cycle by June.
This week is set to potentially bring higher volatility, with key economic data releases on the horizon, including CPI, Treasury note and bond auctions, retail sales data, PPI, and Initial Jobless Claims. It’s also an interesting week ahead on earnings with the most important releases being Oracle (today), Inditex (We), Adidas (Wed), Lennar (Wed), Adobe (Thu), Rheinmetall (Thu), and CATL (Fri).