COVID-19 Vaccine: What is the timeline ?

UK gives vaccine go ahead - This morning, the United Kingdom has approved for use the Pfizer/Biontech Covid-19 vaccine, opening the door to the start of the vaccination campaign early next week. This is the first country to authorize a vaccine using mRNA technology (which is a new type of vaccine that transfers molecules of synthetic RNA into human cells, as opposed to DNA vaccines). The regulatory approval is still pending for the Pfizer vaccine in the European Union and the United States. The approval date is anticipated to be on 10 December in the United States when the FDA committee is due to meet to assess quality and safety of the new vaccine while it may takes a bit longer in the European Union, perhaps one or two more weeks. According to various European sources, it is expected that the European Medicines Agency will provide an opinion on conditional marketing authorization by 29 December, thereby allowing the vaccination campaign to start at some point in January next year.

Distribution information in the UK – As it is the case in other European countries, the United Kingdom will not make the vaccines mandatory and there will be no introduction of “vaccine passports” enabling holders to travel and move freely. The vaccination campaign will be in nine steps, first targeting residents in a care home for older adults and their carers, all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers. For each individual, the vaccination process consists of a 2-dose schedule, with protection against COVID-19 being achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination. Given that the United Kingdom is about to start the vaccination campaign next week, it is likely that herd immunity will be reached at the end of Q1 2021 and that almost all the population will be vaccinated by the end of Q2 2021. A new lockdown is therefore unlikely to happen next year, but the tier system (three-tier rules in England and five-tier system in Scotland) and other restrictions measures that have been recently enacted should remain in place, at least until herd immunity is achieved.

France secures 100M doses of vaccine – The French government indicated today that it has secured around 100M doses of vaccine from seven suppliers. It would make it possible to vaccinate around 50M people (over a population of 67M people), with each individual being given two doses of the vaccine. The initial plan, which is subject to change as it is widely criticized among population, is to vaccinate around 35 to 40M individuals in 2021 and the rest of the population in 2022. If confirmed, it is a very slow timeline response to the crisis. Most other developed countries seek to vaccinate almost all the population at some point next year. The first deliveries should come in mid-January, initially from AstraZeneca (around 4.4M doses) and Pfizer (3.5M doses). Other suppliers, such as Moderna, are expected to start delivery in next February.

Below, you can see the timeline for when vaccine might be available in the following countries: Australia, the EU, Japan and the USA. Based on current scenario, immunization in developed countries will happen at the latest in the third quarter, putting a definitive end to the health crisis, though economic scars might remain longer.

Sources: European Commission, UK Department of Health and Social Care, U.S. HHS, Australian Government Department of Health, Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.