Summary: Our fourth Dragon Interview takes us back to checking in with AVM's Global Macro CIO Ashvin Murthy - Ash walks us through his latest top of mind thoughts, including positioning in the shifting market regime, inflation, real yields, no YCC, the Fed & the potential US dominance theme - which judging by where the DXY & gold closed on Fri Mar 26, at 92.766 & 1732.52 is still largely mispriced by the market.
A US dominance theme should see much strong US Dollar (DXY easily back above 94 to 96 lvls), gold getting hosed potentially back to $1580/$1530 lvls -9% to -12%, as well as US equities outperforming Emerging Markets & Euro-Zone equities, plus higher US bond yields & overall higher real rates. In addition to US economic data, the Fed meetings of Apr 28 & especially Jun 16 are going to be pivotal..
Join the Dragon Interviews series, as Global Macro Consigliere KVP, interviews some of the best of breed players in the craft of steadily compounding wealth - be that across liquid or illiquid assets, global macro investing, venture capital, crypto, equities, commodities, currencies, bonds, private equity, property, etc.
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We originally published this interview on Wed 17 Mar 21, before the Fed meeting that later saw them upgrade their US GDP expectations to +6% - a figure that Ashvin feels could be passed.
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We will have a crypto focused interview that should be published in early Apr.
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Post our foundation piece with Global Macro Hedge Fund AVM's Ashvin Murthy in Oct of 2020, we catch up with Ash to get his latest thoughts as we head into a likely series of very key Fed meetings in regards to them being neutral, vs potentially hiking, vs the YCC route.
We touch on a number of things, including:
Links: AVM Global Opportunity Fund — https://avmglobal.fund/
Watch our debut Dragon Interviews piece here — http://bit.ly/ditvashvin
As always we hope you enjoy the interview as much as we did putting it together, please feel free to share.
Namaste,
-KVP
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy