Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 24, 2024

Equities: US stock futures were higher after the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 closed higher for a second straight day. Tesla reported earnings after-hours and missed expectations on both revenues and earnings, but the company announced a renewed push into more affordable EV models and that pushed the stock higher by over 10%. Texas Instruments also rose over 7% after-market on positive earnings, and Visa added over 3% as its Q1 earnings beat expectations. Spotify hit a record quarterly profit and stock was up 11.5%.

Notably, Apple closed 0.5% higher despite reports signaling a fall of 10% in China iPhone sales in Q1. Facebook owner Meta will report earnings today, followed by tech giants Microsoft and google-parent Alphabet on Thursday.

Asia markets are poised to get a positive start after the Wall Street closed higher and Tesla earnings announcement were better than feared. A weaker USD on the back of a miss in US PMIs could also underpin. Japan’s Nikkei 225 opened about 1% higher, and HK stocks were up by 1.9% on Tuesday on China’s pledge to boost HK’s financial hub status.

FX: Weak US PMIs were a contrast to the improving European PMIs, questioning how long the US exceptionalism will continue just as we highlighted in our Q2 FX outlook. Dollar slumped with the DXY index back below 106, boosting all of the other G10 currencies. GBPUSD rushed back above 1.24 as BOE speaker Haskel was hawkish. However, comments from BOE Chief Economist seemed to make room for a rate cut in the summer, and we continue to be on the lookout for market pricing of the BOE rate cuts to shift dovish, suggesting GBP downside. AUDUSD testing a break above 0.6490 but Australia’s Q1 CPI is up next and could show a sharp disinflation trend, questioning the market pricing of RBA rate cuts to not begin until the end of the year. EURUSD marched above 1.07 but the break appeared fragile, while USDJPY is still above 154.75 even as comments from authorities are hinting towards a clear intent to intervene.

Commodities: Crude oil prices were marginally higher as pricing in geopolitical risk premium remains a challenge for oil traders. The API crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels last week and focus will be on the EIA numbers. Meanwhile, Iran sanctions are also in focus. Copper was down 1% after hitting two-year highs while iron ore slipped close to 3%. Gold bounced back higher from the $2,300 handle as a sharp overdue correction unfolds, while Silver stayed above $26.50. Read our Commodity Strategist, Ole Hansen’s, thoughts on gold and silver correction in this article.

Fixed income: The US PMI numbers stoked labor market concerns, helping Treasuries to inch higher. 2-year yields were up by 4bps, although 10-year remains pinned near 0.8% ahead of the Quarterly Refunding announcement next week. The 5s and 7s auctions are due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Macro:

• US S&P Global Flash PMIs for April were soft, as Manufacturing fell into contractionary territory printing 49.9 (exp. 52.0, prev. 51.9). Services fell to 50.9 from 51.7, and shy of the forecasted 52.0, leaving the Composite at 50.9 from 52.1.
• ECB's de Guindos said a June rate cut looks like a set deal (unless there are surprises) with the end of inflation fight is in sight.
• Eurozone PMIs were supported by the services sector (France 50.5, Germany 53.3, and Euro-area 52.9) and Germany’s return to growth with composite PMI back above the 50-mark at 50.5 from 48.6 previously. UK firms also reported the strongest growth in almost a year withs services PMI at 54.9 from 53.0 previously although manufacturing was back in contraction at 48.7 from 50.4 in March. Eurozone’s PMI numbers hint that despite ECB cutting rates in June, it may remain difficult for them to commit to further rate cuts
• BOE speakers Haskel and Pill sounded cautious on rate cuts after Ramsden’s dovish comments last week. Haskel said UK food price inflation is "unusually high"; UK labour market is "extremely tight". Chief Economist Pill did appear to make a room for rate cut as he said that they are now seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamic, and a cut will not entirely undo the restrictive policy stance.

Macro events: Australian CPI (Mar), German Ifo Survey (Apr), US Durable Goods (Mar), Canadian Retail Sales (Feb). Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone; Schnabel

Earnings: Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Thermo Fisher Scientific, DSV, Kone, Orange, Eni, Boeing, Ford, Hasbro

In the news:

• Apple iPhone sales drop 19% in China as demand for Huawei smartphones soars, research says (CNBC)
• Tesla Aims to Release Cheaper Cars by 2025 After Sales Miss (Bloomberg)
• Traders Add Bets That Fed Will Skip Interest-Rate Cuts This Year (Bloomberg)
• UK stocks may finally be back in fashion (Reuters)
• Japan finance minister says groundwork laid to take appropriate FX action (Reuters)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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