Global Market Quick Take: Asia – March 13, 2024

US Equities: After the CPI report was out of the way, US equities rallied broadly, with the S&P500 Index adding 1.1% to reach a new closing high, and the Nasdaq 100 Index climbing 1.5%. Nvidia rebounded with a remarkable 7.2% gain. The AI chip-making titan is hosting its much-anticipated GTC developer conference commencing on March 18, kicking off with CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote titled “Don’t Miss This Transformative Moment in AI”. Oracle jumped 11.8% on strong AI-related demand that lifted the enterprise software maker’s outlook.

Boeing fell 4.3% after failing 33 of 89 audits in a six-week FAA examination, delivering 27 commercial aircraft in February, down from 28 last year. Southwest Airlines plummeted 14.9% after announcing to reevaluate its financial guidance partly due to delays in aircraft deliveries from Boeing.

Hong Kong/China Equities: Xiaomi surged 11.3% following the announcement of its first electric vehicle, SU7, set to launch on March 28 in 29 Chinese cities. This optimism extended to other EV and internet stocks, propelling Bilibili, JD.com, JD Health, Alibaba Health Ping An Healthcare, and XPeng, each surging more than 6%. The Hang Seng TECH Index rose by 4.6%, while the Hang Seng Index gained 3.1%. Li Ning saw an 8.1% rise as the sportswear maker’s founder reportedly considering privatization. Hong Kong's trading volume hit a six-month high at HKD 150 billion.

Unconfirmed reports suggested 12 banks, upon request by the Chinese authorities, were considering a fundraising effort of RMB 80 billion for Vanke, lifting Chinese property developers like Longfor (+14.1%), China Resources Land (+10.5%), China Overseas Land & Investment (+9.6%), and Vanke itself (+10.3%). On the other hand, Moody’s withdrew China Vanke’s Baa3 issuer rating and assigned it a Ba1 corporate family rating and placed all the ratings of the group on review for downgrade, noting “volatile operating and funding conditions for China's property sector to continue to drag on China Vanke's contracted sales, access to funding and liquidity”. 

In the mainland A-share market, the CSI300 gained a modest 0.2%. Resilience was observed in real estate, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and tourism stocks, while weakness persisted in energy, non-ferrous metals, and utilities segments.

Fixed income: Treasuries sold off moderately after the CPI report came in hotter than the median forecasts of economists but slower than feared in whisper numbers. Interest rate futures suggest a 62% chance of the first rate cut coming by the June FOMC. The $39 billion 10-year auction went relatively poorly. The 2-year yield and the 10-year yields both added 5bps to 4.59% and 4.15% respectively

FX: Dollar gained on a hot CPI report overnight, but the gains did not stick and DXY index ended the session below 103 again. Japanese yen however weakened again on the rise in yields, and USDJPY rose for the first time after five days of declines, touching highs of 148 before easing back to 147.60. Wage talk results will be on the radar for the rest of the week, and anything more than 5% can continue to fuel BOJ pivot bets. NZDUSD also plunged to lows of 0.6136 before rising back to 0.6150 while GBPUSD reversed back towards 1.28 after touching lows of 1.2746. UK wage data yesterday showed some signs of cooling, creating scope of a les hawkish BOE next week, and we also see risks to sterling from a weakening equity market sentiment in case the tech selloff resumes. EURGBP rose to 0.8555 with 50DMA around 0.8557, and UK’s January GDP will be in focus today.

Commodities: Gold had a lot to give to a hot CPI print from the US after the recent run higher, and it ended the say down 1.1% with Silver down 1.3%. Gold still hold above $2,150 but markets will now be jittery ahead of FOMC meeting next week as there is a risk of hawkish shift in the dot plot. Iron Ore prices recovered in Singapore but could not carry the momentum through and remain below $110. Crude oil prices also remain mixed despite API inventories showing a crude drawdown. The EIA STEO noted US crude oil production is to rise by 260k BPD to 13.19mln BPD in 2024 (prev. rise of 170k) and by 460k BPD to 13.65mln in 2025 (prev. rise of 390k BPD). OPEC MOMR saw no changes to demand forecasts from prior month at 2.2m BPD.

Macro:

• US CPI was modestly hot again for February. Headline CPI rose 3.2% YoY vs. 3.1% expected and previous, and was up 0.4% MoM as expected and 0.3% prior. Core rose 3.8% YoY from 3.9% previously, but was higher than 3.7% forecast. Core MoM also exceeded consensus expectations to come in at 0.4%. The annualised measures rose, with the core CPI 3mth annualised rate ticking up to 4.1% from 3.9%, and the 6mth rising to 3.8% from 3.5%. These numbers have dismissed the argument that January’s hot print was a one-off seasonal effect, and raised concerns on the disinflation trend. But the beat wasn’t strong enough to bring a hawkish shift in Fed expectations with the first rate cut only due in June/July and plenty of data to chew on before that.
• UK labor market data for the three months ending January showed that labor market is cooling, even as it remains tight by historical standards. Wage growth, excluding bonuses, came in softer than expected at 6.1% YoY (vs. 6.2% exp) in the three months to January. In the same period, Average Earnings growth, including bonuses, eased to 5.6% from the prior reading of 5.8% and expected growth of 5.7%. The unemployment rate also increased to 3.9% unexpectedly in the three months to January.

Macro events: UK GDP (Jan)

Earnings: Samsonite, Foxconn, Volkswagen, Adidas, Lennar, Dollar Tree, Williams-Sonoma, E.ON, Industria de Diseno Textil, Snam, Geberit

In the news:

• A focus at the next Fed meeting will be whether most officials continue to expect three cuts this year—or fewer (WSJ)
• BOJ to offer guidance on bond buying pace upon ending YCC – sources (Reuters)
• China's champion gymnast Li Ning considers taking company private, sources say (Reuters)
• Developer China Vanke claims Moody’s junk-level downgrade is manageable as shares and bonds gain on bailout reports (SCMP)
• How TikTok Was Blindsided by U.S. Bill That Could Ban It (WSJ)
• Nissan and Honda to cut China production as EV race heats up (Nikkei Asia)
• Arm's shares rise as Wall Street eyes IPO lock-up expiration (Reuters)
• China's Xiaomi to start first EV deliveries this month (Reuters)
• Cocoa Tops $7,000 a Ton as Chocolate Makers Hike Prices, Shrink Packages (Bloomberg)
• IBM is slashing jobs in marketing and communications (CNBC)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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