Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 January 2024

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Asian equity futures are cooling in today’s session with Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng futures down 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. US equity futures are still negatively impacted by Tesla’s 12.1% decline yesterday and Intel’s disappointing Q1 outlook with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8% in early trading hours. French luxury giant LVMH is in focus today after reporting Q4 results yesterday after the European market close. LVMH delivered in line against expectations on organic revenue growth which was seen as positive surprise given the negative momentum in luxury and weak consumer confidence in China. Volvo has reported Q4 results this morning lowering their outlook for output as demand comes down from peak levels.

FX: The dollar trades firmer despite seeing Treasury yields pushing lower as bond traders focus on the disinflation aspect of the GDP report. Pressure on yields and dollar could increase if December PCE comes in softer than expectations today. CHF and EUR were the underperformers in G10 on Thursday, with USDCHF rising to 0.8680 as SNB setup turning bearish for the franc with FX interventions reduced. EURUSD slipped to lows of 1.0822 on increased pricing of April cut after ECB’s less forceful pushback. USDJPY wobbled around 147.50 but CAD got some support from rising oil prices after some dovish BOC weakness. USDCAD slid back below 1.35 and 50DMA at 1.3455 is coming in focus. NOK also benefitted from oil prices with EURNOK sliding sharply to 11.32 from 11.40 breaking below the 23.6% fibo retracement.

Commodities: Crude oil prices rose 3% to a 7-week high before drifting lower overnight. The rally was triggered by the technical break above recent highs with the drive being a US economy showing faster than expected growth, and China stimulus announcements. With supply side remaining mixed on non-OPEC supply offsetting risks from OPEC+ production cuts or geopolitical tensions, focus is likely to stay on the growth outlook. Gold saw mild gains as Treasury yields slipped, but Silver outperformed as it attempted a break of $23 resistance. Metals were sideways after the initial run higher on China stimulus announcements. A massive drop in weekly natural gas stockpiles had no impact as traders turn their attention to milder weather.

Fixed income: Treasury yields fell across the curve following a 25k rise in the initial jobless claims to 214k. The $41 billion 7-year Treasury note auction met with robust demand, leaving primary dealers with 13.94% of the issuance. That’s a contrast to Wednesday 5-year note sale, where indirect bidders awarded the lowest amount since September 2022. It shows that investors preferred to extend their portfolio duration by locking in 7-year US Treasury notes at 4.109% offering a 5.4 basis point pick up over the 5-year notes. The auction set the grounds for a more pronounced bull-steepening of the yield curve. By the end of day, the 10-year yield dropped 6bps to 4.12% while the 2-year yield dropped by 9bps to 4.29%. Today, the focus shifts on the PCE deflator. If it comes in line with expectations, suggesting a yearly rate close to the Fed’s target, it could cause a further bull-steepening of the yield curve.

Macro: US Q4 GDP came in hot, with annualized growth of 3.3%, well above the expected 2.0% and above the Atlanta Fed tracker of 2.4% but easing from the Q3 pace of 4.9%. Inflation metrics, however, cooled for the quarter, boosting soft landing hopes again. PCE eased to 1.7% from 2.6% while the core PCE printed 2.0%, in line with expectations and the prior. Focus now turns to December PCE due today and a preview can be found here. March rate cut pricing is now back to 50% and could increase further if PCE comes in softer than expected. ECB kept its interest rates unchanged as widely expected, but the pushback on April rut cut expectations was less direct and positive direction was noted on wages, although a data-dependent approach continued to be emphasized. President Lagarde noted that it is “premature” to talk about rate cuts, adding that the ECB will be data-dependent and not fixated on the calendar. Odds of April rate cut have picked up to over 90% from less than 70% at the start of this week. US jobless claims for the week of Jan 20 rose to 214k from 189k, above the expected 200k. The 4-week average ticked down to 202.25k (prev. 203.75k). Continued jobless claims jumped to 1.833mn (exp. 1.828mn) from 1.806mn. German Ifo Expectations was soft accompanied by some downbeat commentary. The headline eased to 85.2 from 86.3 with both current conditions down to 87 from 88.5 and expectations down to 83.5 from 84.2.

Volatility: Volatility is on the rise, with the VIX inching up to $13.45 (+0.31 | +2.36%), edging closer to the 15 mark. This uptick, mirrored by increases in the VVIX and SKEW indices, hints at growing market apprehension and the potential for a near-term correction. Overnight, VIX futures climbed to 14.400 (+0.175 | +1.22%), and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw notable declines to 4903.75 (-19.50 | -0.40%) and 17504 (-130.50 | -0.73%), suggesting more pronounced movements than usual. With the PCE price index on the docket, volatility could further intensify, offering a crucial insight into U.S. inflation trends. Despite a generally positive earnings season, market sentiment is mixed, with an eye towards next week's big tech earnings, which are expected to significantly stir the markets.

In the news: Evergrande case could test China-Hong Kong insolvency arrangement (Nikkei Asia), Intel forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates, stock plunges more than 10% in afterhours trading (Reuters), IBM shares soar to more than 10-year high on rosy AI outlook (Reuters), LVMH grows sales as luxury shoppers show resilience (Reuters), Visa's weak second-quarter revenue forecast clouds profit beat, shares slip (Reuters), Chinese retail investors hit by big losses in ‘snowball’ derivatives (FT), Lithium price plunges on slowing Chinese demand for electric vehicles (FT)

Macro events (all times are GMT):  Germany consumer confidence (0600), France consumer confidence (0645), US PCE deflators (Dec) exp. 0.2% & 2.6% vs –0.1% & 2.6% prior (1230), US personal income 0.3% vs 0.4%, and spending 0.5% vs 0.2% (1230), US pending home sales (Dec) exp 2% & -4.3% vs flat & -5.1% prior, Commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US and EU markets

Earnings events: Key earnings releases today from Volvo, Kone, Christian Dior, and Colgate Palmolive.