Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Global Markets: Lucky 8, As We Look Into Next Week...
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: We take a look at the upcoming WK #8, which will have flash PMIs, inflation out of the euro-zone, the United Kingdom & Canada, as well as rate decisions our of Indonesia, Hong Kong & Turkey. Bear in mind the US will be out on the long wkd given President's day on Mon.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
2020-Feb-14
Global Markets: Lucky 8, As We Look Into Next Week...
Lucky 8, as we look into next wk…
- Remember US is out for the long President’s Day WKD & will not be back in until Tue, this could have an effect not only on the close for wk 7 yet obviously risk-appetite & liquidity on Monday’s global markets session. Note this is especially interesting given that the Fed has announced a reduction in the Repo facility which should be kicking off this Fri.
- The Covid-19 deflationary theme will continue to seep into people newsfeed, thinking & data – whether or not asset classes will react according remains to be seen. What we have noted without a doubt is several policy makers from central bank governors from the Fed, BoC, RBNZ, RBA to the BoK comment on the potential risk to growth slowing down.
- For next week we have central bank decision out of Indonesia (25bp cut o 4.75% expected), Hong Kong and Turkey (50bp cut to 10.75% expected). Of the three Turkey is the one to watch, as we could get a surprise bigger cut as Erdogan has vowed lower rates & inflation be damned – recall that he previously sacked the head of the CBRT last year. We will also have minutes due out of the RBA, RBI & ECB.
- There will be the usual flock of Fed speak including; Bostic, Mester, Brainard, Kaplan & Kashkari who is a voting FOMC member this year.
- On the US election circuit we are left with Sat 22nd & Sat 29th being all about the Nevada Caucus & the South Carolina Primary – the latter is also known as “Biden’s last hope” pls. check out our “Put a fork in Biden” Macro Dragon from earlier this wk… Also as has been well flagged by John Hardy (our US political general), as well as Macro Dragon… Butter
- Biggest date post South Carolina is going to be Super Tuesday on Mar 3, where Bloomberg will fully join the fray. Here is a link to a 2020 election calendar.
- Econ data wise we will be focused on flash PMIs seeing how much of the China slowdown is starting to show up, or if it is still early – bear in mind most companies tend to inventory up going into the annual lunar year holiday. Yet we also know that quite a few of the inventory demand figures in Europe are spiking up - yet unclear how quickly China gets back on line to meet that inventory demand. There is an inflation theme, with figs. expected out of the EZ, UK & CA. Aus will also have the key jobs data as well as wage price index due.
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