Market Quick Take – 18 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US fell as AI leaders and rate-cut hopes were tested; Europe extended losses; Asia weakened with China data and Hong Kong under pressure
• Volatility: Vix elevated, expected spx move ±2% this week, call-skew slightly upside
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin ~90k, Ethereum <3k, Enstitutional trusts (ibit/etha) under pressure
• Fixed Income: US Treasuries bid overnight as risk sentiment deteriorates
• Currencies: JPY remains weak. Pro-cyclical currencies from AUD to Scandies weaker on weak risk sentiment.
• Commodities: Risk off and rising volatility drive broad weakness across recent winners
• Macro events: US Weekly ADP Payrolls Change, US Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index

Macro headlines

• After weeks of blackout, investors will finally get long-delayed readings on the strength of the US economy as government agencies resume publishing key indicators, starting with the delayed September jobs on Thursday
• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he sees risks to the labor market as skewed to the downside, but warned that policymakers need to proceed slowly, while Fed Waller advocates for continuing interest rate cuts, supporting a 25bps cut in December to ensure the labor market, which he sees as weak. US inflation aligns with the 2% target, and expectations remain anchored. Tariffs are viewed as a one-time shock. US GDP growth slowed in H2 2025, with weakened consumer sentiment and affordability issues affecting spending. Waller believes no upcoming data, including jobs report, will alter his view on the need for another rate cut.
• Canada's inflation dropped to 2.2% in October 2025 from 2.4% in September, approaching the Bank of Canada's 2% target. Gasoline prices fell 9.4%, slowing transportation inflation to 0.7%. Food and shelter inflation eased, while cellular service costs rose 7.7% after major price hikes. The trimmed-mean core inflation rate decreased to 3%.
• US construction spending increased 0.2% month-over-month in August 2025, matching July's revised rise and defying a forecasted 0.1% decline. Residential spending surged 0.8%, balancing a 0.2% drop in nonresidential activity. Private construction spending grew 0.3%, while public spending remained unchanged. Year-on-year, construction spending fell 1.6%, with 2025's first eight months totaling $1,438 billion, 1.8% below 2024 levels.
• The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 18.7 in November 2025 from 10.7 in October, exceeding the forecast of 6. Manufacturing activity grew strongly, with significant gains in new orders and shipments. Delivery times lengthened slightly, while supply availability worsened and inventories expanded. Employment increased slightly, and workweeks lengthened. Price increases remained high, but pace slowed. Future business condition optimism fell, with the index dropping to 19.1 from 30.3.
• The European Commission increased its Eurozone 2025 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.9%, expecting 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, driven by strong exports and investments. Germany is forecasted to grow 0.2% in 2025, rising to 1.2% thereafter. France is expected to grow 0.7% in 2025, then 0.9% and 1.1%. Spain will lead with 2.9% growth in 2025, followed by 2.3% and 2.0%. Italy is set to grow 0.4% in 2025 and 0.8% in the following years.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed
1315 – US Weekly ADP Payrolls through
1500 – US Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index

Earnings this week

• Today: Home Depot, PDD Holdings, Medtronic
• Wed: Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, Deere & Company, Lowe's, Target
• Thu: Walmart, Intuit

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks started the week on the back foot as investors braced for delayed data and a heavy tech earnings slate. The Dow fell about 1.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped roughly 0.9% and 0.8% as expectations for a December Fed rate cut faded to roughly a coin-flip, putting pressure on expensive growth names. AI leaders were in focus, with Nvidia down about 1.9% ahead of Wednesday’s pivotal results that will act as a real-time test of AI valuations. Alphabet went the other way, gaining about 3.1% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a multibillion-dollar stake, highlighting that investors still buy selectively into quality even as the broader tape weakens. Attention now turns to Nvidia’s guidance and this week’s backlog of labour data.
• Europe: European equities extended last week’s declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down about 0.9% and the Stoxx 600 off 0.5%, as traders followed Wall Street lower and waited for Nvidia’s earnings and delayed US data. Financials and payments were among the weakest groups: Worldline dropped about 5%, while Adyen also fell around 3% as higher yields and ongoing business concerns kept pressure on the sector. Luxury and discretionary names added to the drag, with Burberry down roughly 6.6% and LVMH softer, reflecting caution on consumer spending at elevated valuations. Defence provided a rare bright spot, as Saab jumped around 2.5% on a €3.1 billion Gripen deal with Colombia and Airbus inched about 0.4% higher on continued order momentum, offering some balance to the broader risk-off tone.
• Asia: Asian markets opened the week softer as weak Chinese data and the global tech pullback weighed on sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped modestly, while the CSI 300 fell about 0.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.7% to roughly 26,400 after October numbers showed the slowest growth in industrial output and retail sales in about 14 months, even as the PBoC keeps key lending rates at record lows. EV sentiment deteriorated despite strong volume growth, with Xpeng’s US-listed shares sliding 8% after revenue guidance for the fourth quarter undershot expectations, highlighting how crowded and competitive parts of China’s EV space have become. Across the region, investors now look to Nvidia’s results and any fresh policy signals from Beijing to gauge how long the current wobble in risk appetite might last.

Volatility

• Volatility is creeping higher as the market braces for key data releases and earnings, with the VIX (a gauge of implied 30-day volatility for the S&P 500) standing at about 22.38, up from roughly 19.8 yesterday. That level signals moderate investor nervousness rather than panic, but the upward move shows markets are no longer assuming calm. With options pricing suggesting a roughly ±2% move for the S&P this week (i.e., around ±130 points from current levels), investors should remain alert to swings. Our skew read from the latest chain shows slightly elevated calls versus puts for the expiration on 21 November, hinting that some are positioning for a rebound rather than a deep slide.
• Major drivers: sentiment has been spoiled by delayed US macro data, lingering rate-path uncertainty from the Federal Reserve, and fresh concerns about trade and global growth.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are under real pressure. Bitcoin is trading around USD 90,000, down more than 30% from its October peak and hitting the lowest levels since April. Meanwhile, Ethereum has fallen below USD 3,000, tracking the broader risk-off mood.
• Institutional proxy trusts such as IBIT remain the main gateway into Bitcoin exposure, outflows have been modest but present. According to sources, IBIT holds ≈790 k BTC (~USD 70 bn) though recent flow has been more cautious than dramatic. Mid-week weakness emerges in the ETHA trust too, trading near USD 22–23 as both ether price weakness and cooling ETF enthusiasm weigh. Among major alt-coins, Solana and XRP are somewhat resilient, Solana around USD 130, XRP near USD 2.15, but the trend is clearly tilted toward caution and liquidity drying up.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied yesterday, providing a modest safe haven as equities tilted into the red again on Wall Street. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped back from the 4.15% area yesterday and overnight saw a plunge toward 4.10%.
• The spread between US high yield corporate debt yields and US treasuries widened again yesterday, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread we track widening five basis points to 296 basis points, matching the high of the last month.
• UK Gilts rallied after the steep sell-off on Friday, erasing about four basis points of the 14-basis point surge in the case of the benchmark 10-year Gilt, which closed yesterday at 4.535%. All eyes in the UK on the November 26 Autumn Budget Statement.
• Japan’s long yields rose again, supposedly on concerns linked to the coming fiscal announcement from new PM Takaichi, who said that the fiscal package has become “somewhat larger so far”. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield hit a new post-2008 high of 1.76% before bids came in and sent the yield back to 1.74% as of late Tokyo trading.

Commodities

• Oil prices retreated following Monday’s rebound, pressured by a broader risk-off tone as traders evaluate the impact of a widening global surplus and US sanctions on Russia, which have pushed the country’s flagship crude to a steep USD 23.5 discount to Brent. The timing adds to volatility, coming just days before sanctions formally hit major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. In addition, US-Venezuela developments are also being watched.
• Gold declined for a fourth consecutive session, again drifting toward USD 4,000, while silver slipped back below USD 50. Both continue to feel the weight of equity-driven risk aversion, where rising volatility forces leveraged positions to be pared back. In addition, fading expectations for another US rate cut next month are also weighing on sentiment.

Currencies

• Action in currency markets extremely muted, with a pro-cyclical currencies from AUD to NOK and SEK suffering weakness while the US dollar lifted a bit further, especially against a weak Japanese yen, where the focus there is on fiscal concerns under the new Takaichi-led government. USDJPY rose above 155.00 in choppy fashion and EURJPY touched a new all-time high at 180.00.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.