Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 25... 

Top of Mind…

• Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 25… What kind of week are you trying to have?

• Quick snapshot of the wk ahead will likely be focused on Powell, Clarida as well as decisions out of BoJ & likely more importantly SNB. We’ll get the first speech from BoC’s new governor Macklem. There is also a flock of EM CB’s meeting this wk including Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia & Taiwan.

• Most important known unknowns is likely to be the EU meetings discussing the 750bn euros – the so called “frugal” four vs. the German-Franco-Italiano block.

• Technicals & Charts: Overall chart action over the wkd suggests to KVP quite a bit of divergence between daily & hourly charts, most daily suggesting MR towards more risk-of & USD strength... yet the hrly trying to say we likely already saw that start to correct on Fri...

• A few other things that were noted... AUD & NZD... much closer to resistance with support being miles away...

• NOK had a pretty decent correction last wk, in fact the G10 worst vs. USD.... -3.4% vs. say CAD -1.2%.... hmm....

• Looks like overall skews of favoring Gold, JPY & CHF into FOMC as being asymmetrical have played out well... as of last wk were +2.7%, +2.1% & +1.0% vs. USD

• Copper interestingly enough still did very well last wk, despite of the rock-roll prior bullish wk... i.e. +1.7% & +5.4%...

• Bonds - especially TY1 & Bunds prices had a massive reversal upwards  last wk... JGBs & CGBs lagging...

• Equities - huge weekly inverse hammers with AMZN & TSLA (generally bearish indicator), those wicks are longer than a US unemployment line... interestingly things like NFLX have been broken down for a while... whilst your Zooms similar to Amazon & Tesla went on to make ATH last wk

• Economic data: Econ data is relatively light outside of China’s monthly growth numbers, Australia’s monthly jobs numbers & New Zealand quarterly inflation data. We got some monthly inflation figures out of the UK, CA & EZ… retail sales out of the US, UK & CA… with the rest being a mixed bag. Worth noting there is a lot of bond auctions this wk  

• Central Banks: Japan, UK, Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, Russia

• Holidays: No major markets out   

• US: Empire State, Retail Sales, Cap. Util, IP, Housing data, Philly Fed, Current Account

• CH: All three - Fixed Asset Investments, IP & Retail Sales have missed expectations

• EZ: Trade Balance, GER ZEW, Final CPI, ECB Economic Bulletin, Current Account    

• JP: BoJ, Tertiary Industry Activity, Trade Balance, National Core CPI

• UK: BoE, AHE, CPI, House Prices, Retail Sales

• AU: RBA Mins, Jobs Data

• NZ: GDP Q/Q, Visitor Arrivals, Milk Auction

• CA: Mfg. Sales, CPI, ADP, House Prices, Retail Sales

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Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP