Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 41, China is out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month, Final Quarter

Macro Dragon: WK # 41, China out, VP Debate In, RBA, FOMC Mins, New Month = Final Quarter = New POTUS

Top of Mind…

• Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 41…
  
  
• Hope everyone had an epic restful weekend
  
  
• What kind of week are you trying to have up ahead?
  
  
• Focus: Well folks, basically a month to the pivotal US election day, so VP debate between Harris & Pence may be the only actual “debate”, despite us still having two more meet-ups scheduled between Trump & Biden. Worth noting Harris is a prosecutor by background & Pence’s speeches have tended to be cardboard tasty.
  
  
• It’s worth noting, the debates are not mandated by the constitution & part of the Dragon’s ring-side coaching to one of the teams is to bin one of the debates, among other advice going forward.
  
  
• Markets: New Month, Final Quarter means the potential noise in price action of last wk is out of the way. We could potentially be going back into a sustained run of risk-assets doing well & the USD being sold – i.e. its seems to be so consensus that its going to get volatile on the election outcome, that KVP is starting to think that pathway is going to get priced out.
  
  
• Economics: Final Service PMIs across the board, including US ISM Non-mfg PMI. We got some industrial production data out of Europe including German Factory orders. The US will see Trade Balance, JOLTS & the usual weekly jobs data (ticked lower last wk)
  
  
• Politics: VP Debate Wed 7 Oct – Its going down! Harris is going to go through Pence like a Vegan on a Meat Lover.
  
  
• Central Banks: RBA 0.25 % e/p
  
  
• ECB’s Lagarde set to speak on Tue 6 Oct 21:00 SGT & Wed 20:00 SGT
  
  
• Also have BoE’s Bailey Thu @ 15:25 SGT & BoC Macklem Thu @ 2-:30 SGT
  
  
• Fed Speak: Evans, Bostic, Powell Tue 6 Oct @ 22:40 SGT, Harker, Kaplan, Rosengren, Williams
  
  
• FOMC Minutes due early Thu Asia, Wed evening ET US - likely nothing new here… yet obviously if YCC is coming back in focus & concerns about a slowdown in fiscal support may move markets.
  
  
• Holidays: China has been out since last Thu & only gets back in on Fri this wk
  
  
• Other: We got daylights saving time shift in Australia over the wkd, taking us back to 3hrs with SG from 2.

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