Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: Saxo has put out a lot of content to support investors over the last few days. We thought it would be good to bring these all together for a quick mid-week wrap, as well as provide some context around what our client base is doing.
There is currently a sense of calm post Friday & Monday's shock sell-off. It's too early to be sure this is behind us and with uncertainty on the near-term market outlook, rising geopolitical tensions and US elections heating up, volatility may be here for a while. We think there are 3 ways you can ensure you navigate this volatility well:
Do Not Panic: Remain invested. The old adage of time in the market beats timing the market.
Be Diversified: Historic equity market concentration will mean single stock exposure can be very extreme. Diversifying with ETFs, Mutual Funds or Bonds in your portfolio can help.
Be Opportunistic: Our clients today sit on a lot of cash and these sell-offs often present great entry points to good value companies. Be sure to be on the look out for the right opportunities. Our Themes section under the research tab can help you find interesting themes to pick up.
A classic market crash driven by, as Peter Garnry puts it, "The Perfect Storm". This includes recession fears in US post weakening employment data, a rush to take profit in all things AI after a huge bull market and a surprise BoJ hike. This BoJ move nuked one of the favourite trades held by currency investors, the "Carry Trade", unwinding of one of the key trading strategies for options traders and most importantly for investors, massive concentration in equity markets. Concentration is the highest it has been since the 1930s with a few stocks dominating performance.
The message here as always is Do Not Panic. Be diversified, allocate spare cash opportunistically and remain invested--> time in the market beats timing the market.
Read more: The perfect storm hits market and what comes next
Reestablishing their inverse relationship with equities. This resets the classic value or holding a mix of bonds & equities within your portfolio to weather turbulent markets. Althea highlights why bonds are better hedges today than they have been in recent years. You can screen for bonds on our platform by going through "Trading --> Screener --> Filter"
Read more: Why Bonds Are Regaining Their Hedging Power in Today’s Market
Commodities not unaffected by this crisis. Deleveraging across the industry means people are reducing their exposure. Gold typically is seen as a source of safety in heightened market turmoil & geopolitical risks.