Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew April 21 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Due to an event there will be no Morning Brew tomorrow,
Markets remain calm and looking for clues. US Equities fell moderately but recover over night on decent earnings numbers and hopes inflation may have peaked. Our Strats team in Asia wrote a deeper article: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/inflation-stays-top-of-mind-for-investors-21042022
US 10 year yields fell to 2.85 and the USD Index to 100.38, EURUSD 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.3050 and Gold and Silver at 1952 and 25.06. oil rose 1.5% to 103.70 in the CL contract.
The IMF warned a slowdown in China would have global implications but China had room to maneuver.
For the US, a 50 BPS hike seems like a done deal for the FOMC meeting in two weeks, the probability is traded at 97%.
Tesla revenue was USD 18.8 billion in Q1, versus estimates of USD17.8 billion and EPS 3.22 vs 2.26, the stock had fallen 5% in regular trading but could make up the loss after hours.
Nestle beats expectations this morning with an organic sales growth of 7.6& vs 5% expected
Netflix closed 35% lower, Bill Ackman takes a 400 mio loss and exits the position with his fund.
European Inflation Data at 11 will be of importance today, the annual HICP rate is expected at 7.5% and may indicate more pressure on the ECB to take action against inflation.-
Earnings:
- Thursday: American Airlines, Snap, AT&T
- Friday: Amex, Verizon, SAP, Schlumberger
Economic data:
- Thursday: EU HICP at 11, US Labor Data at 14:30
- Friday: UK CPI at 8:00, International PMI
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