Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew April 4 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: The calm before the storm?
Good Morning,
The EU is considering stronger sanctions against Russia on accusations of war crimes and even German politicians are starting to demand an import stop for Russian gas. So far markets are not really reacting. Oil only gains minutely and Equities start the week on a friendly note overall – but gains are only insignificant so far.
The GER40 is trading at 14544 ant the 50 day moving average is the next key resistance at 14624, the US30 34865 and needs to breach the 35k, US500 is somewhat mid range at 4555 an the USTech 100 also in undecided territory at 14882,
EURUSD is off recent highs at 1.1040 with still falling implied Vol, GBPUSD 1.3120 and Gold and Silver looking for clues at 1921 and 24.77.
Bitcoin is hovering below the 47k.
Inflation is becoming a tabloid subject in Germany with Bild publishing lists of price increases at Aldi and publishing tips on how to cook cheaper. This will cause significant pressure on the government to try to influence the ECB.
In the US the 2710 year yield curve has inverted, usually a sign of a recession and the Fed Minutes on Wednesday will be closely watched in that background.
China is showing some flexibility towards US transparency requirements as it is considering to adapt confidentiality rules that would allow Chinese Companies to comply with US reporting requirements.
Amazons new union will start tariff negotiations in May.
Tesla reported record Q1 deliveries but is so far not able to relaunch production in it`s Shanghai factory.
Today we are watching for News arround EU Sanctions and any hint of an energy boycott against Russia, comments on the inverted US Yield cuve by central bankers and in terms of economic data the Turkish CPI at 9, EU Sentix index at 10:30 and US Factory Orders at 16:00
Tomorrow there will be a flurry of international PMIs with EU at 10 and US at 15:45 key.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
WK2 will expire 6th April at 09:00 GMT
FPJ2 will expire 11th April at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
GASOILUKAPR22 will expire 8th April at 15:00 GMT
LEANHOGSAPR22 will expire 12th April at 15:00 GMT
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