Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew August 18 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will Risk Off continue or was it just a bump in the Road?
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a risk off day with stocks lower and the USD stronger against basically everything else. The Dow gave up 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq lost 1.3% and the official Dax close was down 2.06%.
EURUSD fell to 1.0167, GBPUSD 1.2039, USDJPY rose to 135.10 and Gold and Silver lost to 1763 and 19.70. Bitcoin is trading 23500.
The Probability of a 50 BPS hike in September has risen to 60%.
Disappointing earnings by target, lower than expected US retail sales and a higher than expected UK Inflation triggered risk aversion along with profit taking. After the Fed Minutes show a flexible path and decent Cisco earnings, sentiment seems to calm.
The old subject of Meme stocks is back in play with bed bath and beyond as well as Manchester United being affected. Elon Musk had tweeted he was interested in buying ManU, then commented it was a joke but Jim Ratcliffe stated he was interested in increasing his stake. This caused large swings
Cisco beat expectations after the close and the stock gained app 2%.
Todays Focus will be on the EU HICP at 11:00 expected at 8.9% annually and US Data at 14:30. The Turkish Central bank rate will be release at 13:00.
Tomorrow Morning at 8 we are expecting the UK retail sales.
Kim Cramer compiled an Energy Chart Collection, very useful: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/ta-energy-17082022
Economic Data:
- Thursday: EU HICP, Turkey rate decision, US Jobless claims, Philly Fed
- Friday: UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales.
Earnings:
- Thursday: Applied Materials, Estee Lauder, NetEase, Adyen, Nibe, Geberit
- Friday: China Merchants Bank, CNOOC, Shenzhen Mindray, Xiaomi, Deere
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
- Cocoa (CCU2) will expire 17th Aug at 15:00 GMT
- Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) (CLU2) will expire 22nd Aug at 15:00 GMT
- Coffee C (KCU2) will expire 22nd Aug at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
- OILUSSEP22 will expire 18th Aug at 15:00 GMT
- COFFEENYSEP22 will expire 19th Aug at 15:00 GMT
- PALLADIUMSEP22 will expire 22nd Aug at 15:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
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