Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew August 2 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Good Morning and an great start into August where initially progress in the US Infrastructure Bill outweighs a disappointing Chinese PMI – it came at 50.4, while the expectation was 50.8.
A bipartisan group of senators finished a plan that would add USD 550 bio to the already decided USD 450 bio.
International Index Futures gain around 0.5% over the weekend, after giving up a similar percentage on Friday. FX was fairly quiet with the USD Index at 92.10, EURUSD at 1.1872, GBPUSD at 1.3907 and God and Silver at 1811 and 25.50. Chinese shares can revover off last weeks selloff 2,3% higher.
Friday, Amazon dropped 7.6% on disappointing results, Square is looking to buy Afterpay in a 29 Bio transaction, HSBC reports better than expected earnings, doubling its earnings despite a decline in revenue.
This week, earnings, the US infrastructure bill, international PMIs and the Nonfarm Payroll will be in focus. The US seems to be investigating regulation of crypto currencies. Even as Fed`s Brainard calls for a Fed driven digital currency. Also any hint of tapering or a delay thereof will be heeded.
This week’s earnings include: Mitsubishi, Amgen, Alibaba, Eli Lilly, BP, ConocoPhillips, Toyota, Sony, General Motors, Uber, Siemens, Merck, Square, Llumina, Novo Nordisk, Moderna, Berkshire Hathaway Allianz, Adidas
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
2 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | South Korea | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Aug 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Mfg PMI Final | Jul | 51.0 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Aug 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | Jul | 61.5 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | Jul | 58.1 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | Jul | 65.6 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | Jul | 62.6 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | Jul | 60.4 | Index (diffusion) |
2 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 60.9 | Index |
3 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY | Jul | 0.0% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Tokyo | Jul | Percent | |
3 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Building Approvals | Jun | -4.5% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 06:30 | Australia | RBA Cash Rate | Aug | 0.10% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Jul | 1.54% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.0% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jun | 11.8% | Percent |
3 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 3 Aug, w/e | USD | |
3 Aug 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
3 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jun | 1.0% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | HLFS Unemployment Rate | Q2 | 4.5% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - QQ | Q2 | 0.7% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - YY | Q2 | 2.1% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Jun | -1.8% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Trade | Q2 | 0.9% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | USD | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Jul | 57.0 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Jul | 62.2 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | 60.6 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index |
4 Aug 2021 | 23:00 | Brazil | Selic Interest Rate | 4 Aug | 5.25% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jun | 10,450M | AUD |
5 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jun | 1.5% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE Bank Rate | Aug | 0.10% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | GB BOE QE Corp | Aug | 20B | GBP |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jun | -73.9B | USD |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 31 Jul, w/e | 380k | Person |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jun | -0.80B | CAD |
6 Aug 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NZD | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.5% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jul | Percent | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NOK | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | EUR | |
6 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jul | CHF | |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jul | 900k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.7% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jul | 3.9% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jul | 150.0k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.4% | Percent |
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | Jul | USD | ||
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jul | Percent | |
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jul | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
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