Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
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Morning Brew August 24 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: USD has the weakest day in months, Stocks gain on dovish hopes
Good Morning
Yesterday, the Dollar had the weakest day in months and equities treaded very friendly. The Nasdaq gained 1.5%, the S&P500 0.85 and the Dow 0.6%.
The USD Index fell to below 93 as EURUSD rose to 1.1740, GBPUSD to 1.3740 Gold rises above 1800 and is near the resistance at 1810. If broken, 1840 would be the next target. Silver came off the lows to trade at 23.60, a break above the 24 is necessary for a new signal. Bitcoin gives up ground to just below 50k.
The U.S. FDA granted full approval to the Pfizer/Biontech COVID vaccine, both shares rise, Pfizer by 2.5% and Biontech 9.6%. Trillium Therapeutics gained 188.8% after Pfizer agreed to buy the company.
Samsung is looking to invest more than 200 bio into semiconductors, Biotech, AI and Robotics over the next three years.
The U.S. SEC has started to tighten disclosure requirements to Chinese companies.
The moves yesterday were caused by hopes of a more dovish Jackson Hole conference, after Kaplan sounded a little cautious and a slowdown in the Chicago PMI. As we expect the markets react fairly strongly to any dovish or hawkish news.
There is little on the Agenda today except the US New Home Sales so there is lots of room for comments to test the market.
Tomorrow I will be off, most significant event there will ne the German IFO and US durable goods order. Given the supply chain issue, durable goods could come lower and provide a dovish signal.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
24 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Detailed QQ SA | Q2 | 1.5% |
24 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Detailed YY NSA | Q2 | 9.6% |
24 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | New Home Sales-Units | Jul | 0.690M |
25 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Business Climate New | Aug | 100.4 |
25 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Curr Conditions New | Aug | 100.8 |
25 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | Ifo Expectations New | Aug | 100.0 |
25 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Aug | 0.82% |
25 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Durable Goods | Jul | -0.2% |
26 Aug 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | Bank of Korea Base Rate | Aug | |
26 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Capital Expenditure | Q2 | 2.5% |
26 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Business Climate Mfg | Aug | 109 |
26 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP 2nd Estimate | Q2 | 6.7% |
26 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 21 Aug, w/e | 350k |
27 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Tokyo | Aug | |
27 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM | Jul | -2.9% |
27 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | MM | Jul | 0.3% |
27 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Aug | 70.9 |
(Refinitiv)
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