Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew July 27 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will markets move on Powell ?
Good Morning
Today is the long awaited day – the Jackson Hole conference will take place and markets are in absolute hibernation mode ahead of the event. Equities lost app 0.5% globally after two ISIS attacks in Afghanistan that killed 85 and slightly hawkish comments by Robert Kaplan and Bullard.
10 Year ratees trade at 1.3425, the USD Index at 92.98, EURUSD at 1.1760, gold 1802 and Silver 23.70. Bitcoin remains at 47k.
Key at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the speech by Jerome Powell at 16:00 CET and any outlook he will provide on the Tapering timeline. Hawks are arguing that the economy is strong enough to withstand tapering, doves are citing the delta variant of corona as a basis to delay any taper.
The fact that corona related hospitalizations exceed 100k people as of yesterday and the fact that the meeting is not held in persona but remote can be taken as dovish.
Besides the Symposium we are expecting the US Consumption at 14:30 CET and the University of Michigan Consumer confidence at 16:00 CET but both would have to be a real surprise for having any impact. On Monday the UK markets are closed, the Swiss KOF indicator will be releases and the German CPI.
Pls find the Agenda of the conference :
All times are U.S. Eastern:
10:00 (1400 GMT) WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
OPENING REMARKS
JEROME H. POWELL, Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
10:30 (1430 GMT) MONETARY POLICY AND UNEVEN SHOCKS
11:15 (1515 GMT) FISCAL POLICY AND UNEVEN SHOCKS
12:00 (1600 GMT) THE INTERACTION OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY
14:30 (1830 GMT) THE COVID SHOCK AND AN UNEVEN LABOR MARKET
15:15 (1915 GMT) LOW INTEREST RATES AND AN UNEVEN ECONOMY
15:40 (1940 GMT) GENERAL DISCUSSION
16:00 (2000 GMT) MONETARY POLICY IN AN UNEVEN ECONOMY
16:45 (2045 GMT) GENERAL DISCUSSION
17:00 (2100 GMT) ADJOURNMENT
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