Morning Brew August 30 2024

Good morning,

 Saxo Bank Group reported an adjusted net profit of DKK 508 million, compared to DKK 376 million for the same period last year, corresponding to an increase of 35 %.

During 2024, the Saxo Bank Group rolled out a new competitive pricing structure that lowers costs for clients as well as improvements to the client experience, leading to a record number of clients and client assets, with over 1.2 million end clients and € 109 billion in client assets as of 30 June 2024.

H1 2024 key financial figures (H1 2023)

• Net profit (adjusted):                              € 68 million             
• Total client assets:                                   € 109 billion
• Total capital ratio:                                    27,5% (31.9%)

After Nvidia lost 6% yesterday after earnings and the good news that the US economy grew by 3%, stocks were mixed overall.

The S&P basically stood still, the Dow closed at a record high and the Nasdaq ended slightly lower.

Apple and chip giant Nvidia are reportedly in talks to invest in OpenAI as part of a new fundraising round, Citigroup announced Apple as it`s top AI stock.

Dollar General suffered the biggest loss in value ever as the discount retailer disappointed with it`s outlook, shares fall 32%.

Please find the technical picture for Nvidia here: Nvidia’s bullish trend in jeopardy after earnings – Key levels to watch! Our Strats team also took a look at the new Blackwell Chips: Raising the Bar in Generative AI

Today will be dominated by economic data:

8:00 German Import Prices
8:00 UK House Prices
8:45 France CPI
9:00 Swiss KOF Indicator
9:00 Austria HICP
9:55 Germany Unemployment
11:00 EU HICP
14:30 US PCE
14:30 Canada GDP
15:45 Chicago CPI
16:00 University of Michigan Sentiment final

As mentioned yesterday the Fed wants to cut rates and needs the justification, today`s PCE is the first of three crucial input points with the labor market data next Friday and the CPI on September 11 the last before the rate decision on September 18.

A cut is fully expected in September, the question is 25 or 50 basis points. Currently the probability is 68/32 in favor of 25. In the three meetings until the end of the year, 100 basis points are expected.

With the European Inflation at 11, EURUSD will be interesting to watch today, the ECB is seen to cut by 25 basis points in September with 99% probability and 63 basis points by year end. The shift in expectation will be a main driver.

US 10-Year Yields rose after the strong GDP number and caused EURUSD and GBPUSD to drop away from resistance levels. Kim took ka look at the technical levels yesterday and called the correction perfectly.

Month end, Israel and Ukraine should be of limited market impact unless there is a major event.

Trade safely!