Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew August 4 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Calm markets - Risk on
Good Morning
The S&P500 closed at a new record yesterday at 4423. The Dow and Nasdaq also end app 0.8/0.55% higher. Caixn Services PM rises to 54.9 after 50.3 last month, pulling Asian equities up.
Toyota posts a record quarterly operating profit of USD $9.2 billion, BMW and Stelantis warn the chip shortage will hurt production numbers significantly in the 2nd half of the year and possibly beyond. Under Armour and Ralph Lauren raise their guidance and gain 6%. Sony reports a 26% rise in quarterly profit. European Indexes tend towards the upper end of their recent range.
The USD Index is little moved at 92.04, EURUSD at 1.1870 and Cable at 1.3930. Gold hovers at 1813 and Silver 25.65. Bitcoin trades just below the 39k
The NZ unemployment fell to 4%, much better than the expected 4.5% boosting the Kiwi by 0.5%
The rest of the day we are expecting a number of international PMIs, which could confirm risk on or off sentiment, other key items will be the US infrastructure deal and any further Chinese market intervention. There are no first line earnings today except for GM but lots of 2ndd tier including Uber and Roku. Focus is already shifting the US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday for indications on the tapering. Equities rely on the Fed as a lifeline.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | HLFS Unemployment Rate | Q2 | 4.5% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - QQ | Q2 | 0.7% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | Labour Cost Index - YY | Q2 | 2.1% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Jun | -1.8% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Trade | Q2 | 0.9% | Percent |
4 Aug 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | USD | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Jul | 57.0 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Jul | 62.2 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | 60.6 | Index (diffusion) |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jul | Index (diffusion) | |
4 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jul | 60.4 | Index |
4 Aug 2021 | 23:00 | Brazil | Selic Interest Rate | 4 Aug | 5.25% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jun | 10,450M | AUD |
5 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jun | 1.5% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | BOE Bank Rate | Aug | 0.10% | Percent |
5 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | United Kingdom | GB BOE QE Corp | Aug | 20B | GBP |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jun | -73.9B | USD |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 31 Jul, w/e | 380k | Person |
5 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jun | -0.80B | CAD |
6 Aug 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NZD | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.5% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jul | Percent | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NOK | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | EUR | |
6 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jul | CHF | |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jul | 900k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.7% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jul | 3.9% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jul | 150.0k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.4% | Percent |
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | Jul | USD | ||
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jul | Percent | |
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jul | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
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