Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Morning Brew December 3 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Global Equities rise as France`s Goverment is near collapse
Good morning,
Kudos to Reuters for the best headline of the day: Notre-Dame rebuilt, as Paris nears collapse
Equities remain at high levels, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dax hit all time highs yesterday on little news. The high in Dax is interesting as headlines seem not to justify the sentiment and speculation for the cause of the optimism is wide. China might launch stimulus measures possibly boosting exports, Trump might bring peace in Ukraine, the PE is low etc. I see constant ETF inflows as a major source of stability and on that note, remember that tomorrow the next round of buying occurs in our Autoinvest – have the relevant account funded.
The GER40 has its eyes on the 20.000 level às the US500 is at 6050, the US30 at 44770 and the US tech 100 NAS at 21180. The France 40 is relatively stable at 7221 despite the woes in government. Noteworthy shares were Tesla and Super Micro Computer gaining 3.5 and 29% respectively
The Spread between German and French 10 year yields are trading at the highest level since the Greek crisis as is it likely the government will topple tomorrow.
US 10 Year Yields remain at 4.20 and the USD Index at 106.40. EURUSD is at 1,05 GBPUSD 1.2660 and USDJPY 149,95. Gold and Silver are 2646 and Silver is testing the 31. Bitcoin is hovering below the 100k and will jump either way at one point.
Swiss CPI came even lower than expected at 0.7% vs 0.8% expected, making a December cut more likely to be 50 bps – now traded at a probability of 30%. The year end rate for 2025 is seen at 17 BPS or 83 basis below the current level. The Swiss Franc moved little on the news.
The Jolts Job openings are of interest today and the Snowflake earnings, besides that, the middle east remains tense as the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah seems fragile and Syria remains tense. A Nato Summit will take place in Brussels
Trade carefully.,
Tuesday
- Data Switzerland CPI, Jolts Job openings
- Earnings: Salesforce
Wednesday
- Data International PMI , Beige Book, Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thursday
- Data German Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims,
Friday
- Data De Industrial Output, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Consumer confidence.
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