Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew December 5 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Uncertainty into the Nonfarm and the rate decisions next week
Good Morning
As usual when I leave the office, things get interesting: A shift in the Fed`s rate expectations to the back caused risk to sell off and Yields to rise. At the same time, we saw a very strong move in PM, from a new all time high in Gold to a selloff.
The first full cut by the fed moved back to the May meeting but there are now 5 cuts priced in in 2024. Yields gave up their gains already this morning with the ten year back at 4.22.
Indexes gave up a little ground yesterday with the S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.8% and the Dow -0.10% in fairly high volumes at almost 20% above average. The USD Index gained to 103.72, EURUSD at 1.0820, GBPUSD 1.2620 and USDJPY 146.90. EURCHF and USDCHF seem to have seen come intervention by the SNB.
Gold hit an old time high in the Open and then sold off to 2034. Silver fell back to 24.50. Bitcoin rose to above 40k and ether to 2200, pulling Crypto shares higher as well.
Expect bouts of volatility as markets seem to be very nervous and risk sentiment seems fickle. Focus is turning to the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday to confirm the Feds path. Due to the FOMC next week, there are no Fed speakers this week.
Key Events:
Tuesday
- Data: International PMI-
Wednesday
- Data Germany Industrial Orders, BoC Rate decision
Thursday
- Data China Trade, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims,
Friday
- Data Japan GDP US Nonfarm Payrolls
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