Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew December 20 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good morning,
Until January 6, I will be off and wish you great holidays and a great start to the new
Thank you for engaging and fun discussions and meetings and great business. I am very much looking forward to an “Interesting” 2025 with you all.
Yesterday, markets were digesting the Fed Selloff and seemed to be a bit flabbergasted, The Dow ended the losing streak and gained 0.04%, the S&P and Nasdaq ended slightly in the red at -0.1% at high volumes.
The USD Index rose along with yields to 108.40, EURUSD is 1.0365 GBPUSD is below 1.25 and USDJPY 156.95. Gold 2600 and Silver 29. Bitcoin is trading at 97.000. 10 Year Yields are at 4.56
Worries about a US Government shutdown are weighing on sentiment this morning with indexes down 0.5% over night.
We have quite a few topics to watch today and the next few days:
- The US is approaching a government shutdown after a plan backed by Trump failed to pass the house yesterday. If there is no solution today, the U.S. government will go into partial shutdown affecting 2 million federal workers. This is the first significant test for an administration not even in power yet.
- Today is the last big expiry for 2024, check your expiries and roll positions where required.
- We are expecting a lot of data but the key will be the PCE at 14:30 CET expected at 2.5% and the Core at 2.9%. this is the last KEY number of 2024.
- Position and year end housecleaning can cause sharp moves, especially in popular products and shares (FX, Nvidia, Tesla, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver etc. )
- If you are trading be aware that swap rates between Xmas and the new year are often unfavorable, it can be cheaper to swap to the new year.
- The US is launching a probe into how Nvidia chips reached China against sanctions
- Several media are featuring articles on the power of Elon Musk and painting him as the actual power in the US, this could either be actual worry or an attempt to sow strife between the two alpha males.
Have a great year end and trade safely!
Friday
- Data China Rate decision UK Retail Sales, US PCE, Quadruple Witching Friday
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