Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew December 21 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off sentiment seems to fade
Good Morning,
Risk Off sentiment is fading with Us Indexes basically flat yesterday. 10 year US Interest rates are stable at near 3.7% and the USD Index near 104.
Movers of the day yesterday was USDJPY and precious Metals. USDJPY traded as low as 130.65 before recovering to now 132, gold and silver rose to above 1810 and 24. EURUSD remains just above 1.06 and GBPUSD 1.2165.
Overnight Index Futures gain app 0.4%, the GER40 is testing the 14000 again.
WTI crude oil gained 1% to USD76.1 on lower than expected inventories.
In the US, A 1.6 Trillion USD spending bill has been agreed on in the US to avoid a government shutdown supporting risk sentiment.
Elon Musk announced will step down as chief executive of Twitter as soon as he finds someone “foolish enough2 he said he would continue to run software and servers – he did not mention a focus back on Tesla.
Ukrainian President Zelenski is visiting the US today.
We see trading volumes declining into the year end, so trading will be mostly quiet but significant news will have an impact stronger than usual.
Economic releases:
Wednesday 21 December
- US consumer confidence
- Canada CPI
Thursday 22 December
- UK GDP (Q3 F)
- US Initial jobless claims (Dec 17) and 3Q GDP Final
Friday 23 December
- Japan CPI inflation
- US Durable goods orders, personal Income, Core PCE price index, and new home sales
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