Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew December 3 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: FoMo driving the year end Rally? NFP will clear the picture
Good morning,
Markets are overall fairly calm and looking for a clear driver into the end of the year. Today with EU PMIs and retail sales , the debt ceiling deadline and the non-farm payroll may provide some guidance. FoMo is struggling with risk averseness.
US stocks trended higher yesterday and closed 1.8% higher in the Dow, 1.4 in the S&P and 0.8 in the Nasdaq, the Dax and Eurostoxx 50 futures are 0.6% higher.
The USD Index can gain to 96.30 with EURUSD at 1.1280 and Cable at 1.3280, Gold and Siver are little changed at 1780 and 22.35. 10 year yields are trading at 1.44. The US 2 year yields are continuing to trade extremely volatile again, gaining from 0.44 to 0.6350 in the week. The Turkish Lira looks weak, trading near the low at 13.68 against the USD
Bitcoin remains at 57k and Ethereum at 4577.
Oil fell yesterday on Opec agreeing to increase output, the CL contract falls to 62.43 before recovering to 67.62
Didl will delist from US Exchanges on pressure by China,
Elon Musk sold almost a million Tesla shares acc to Reuters without too great of an impact.
Upcoming expiries:
LEZ1 will expire 3rd December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
CZ1 will expire 6th December 2021 at 10:00 GMT
FBONZ1 will expire 7th December 2021 at 10:00 GMT
FBTPZ1, FGBLZ1, FGBMZ1, FGBSZ1, FOATZ1 will expire 7th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
FPZ1 will expire 9th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
ADZ1, BPZ1, DXZ1, E7Z1, EADZ1, ECZ1, JGB1Z1, JYZ1, M6BZ1, M6EZ1, MJYZ1, MPZ1, NEZ1, PJYZ1, RAZ1, RFZ1, RPZ1, RYZ1, SEZ1, SFZ1 will expire at 10th December 2021 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
10YBTPDEC21, 10YOATDEC21, BUNDDEC21 will expire 6th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
AUDUSDADDEC21, EURCHFRFDEC21, EURJPYRYDEC21, EURUSDECDEC21, GBPUSDBPDEC21, GASOILUKDEC21 will expire 8th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
USDINDEXDEC21 will expire 9th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
Good morning,
Markets are overall fairly calm and looking for a clear driver into the end of the year. Today with EU PMIs and retail sales , the debt ceiling deadline and the non-farm payroll may provide some guidance. FoMo is struggling with risk averseness.
US stocks trended higher yesterday and closed 1.8% higher in the Dow, 1.4 in the S&P and 0.8 in the Nasdaq, the Dax and Eurostoxx 50 futures are 0.6% higher.
The USD Index can gain to 96.30 with EURUSD at 1.1280 and Cable at 1.3280, Goond and Siver are little changed at 1780 and 22.35. 10 year yields are trading at 1.44. The US 2 year yields are continuing to trade extremely volatile again, gaining from 0.44 to 0.6350 in the week. The Turkish Lira looks weak, trading near the low at 13.68 against the USD
Bitcoin remains at 57k and Ethereum at 4577.
Oil fell yesterday on Opec agreeing to increase output, the CL contract falls to 62.43 before recovering to 67.62
Didl will delist from US Exchanges on pressure by China,
Elon Musk sold almost a million Tesla shares acc to Reuters without too great of an impact.
Upcoming expiries:
LEZ1 will expire 3rd December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
CZ1 will expire 6th December 2021 at 10:00 GMT
FBONZ1 will expire 7th December 2021 at 10:00 GMT
FBTPZ1, FGBLZ1, FGBMZ1, FGBSZ1, FOATZ1 will expire 7th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
FPZ1 will expire 9th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
ADZ1, BPZ1, DXZ1, E7Z1, EADZ1, ECZ1, JGB1Z1, JYZ1, M6BZ1, M6EZ1, MJYZ1, MPZ1, NEZ1, PJYZ1, RAZ1, RFZ1, RPZ1, RYZ1, SEZ1, SFZ1 will expire at 10th December 2021 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
10YBTPDEC21, 10YOATDEC21, BUNDDEC21 will expire 6th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
AUDUSDADDEC21, EURCHFRFDEC21, EURJPYRYDEC21, EURUSDECDEC21, GBPUSDBPDEC21, GASOILUKDEC21 will expire 8th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
USDINDEXDEC21 will expire 9th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT
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