Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew December 30 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Year winding down with TRY under pressure again


Good morning,

Please find the trading schedule for the New Year here

US Blue Chip Indexes closed at records yesterday, but on small moves and low volume, the year end slowdown is in full swing. The Dow gained 0.25%, the S&P 0.14% an the Nasdaq fell by 0.1%. Most important news for traders was that Elon Musk stated he had exercised his stock options expiring in 2022.

China Evergrande fell app 10% after reportedly missing a further coupon payment.

The USD weakened yesterday, the trade-weighted Index fell from 96.40 to 95.75 only to recover to 96.05, EURUSD is trading at 1.1320 and GBPUSD at 1.3477. TRY is under pressure again, falling to more than 13 Lira to the dollar, a 5% move. The US Goods Trade Deficit rose to a record in November by 17.5% to USD 97.8 billion from USD83.2 billion.

Gold remains near 1800 after the worst performing year in 6 and Silver fell to 22.60.

Bitcoin lost 1% over night to 46700, and is near support on the descending trendline from November, The Author of “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb published a research paper arguing that Bitcoin was worthless.

US 10 year yields rose to 1.5450 and German Bond Futures traded lower, the 30 year is not at 207.50 after a December high at 219.7.

European Gas and electricity prices stabilized after the strong sell offs.

Todays Agenda is rather thin with the Swiss KOF Indicator at 9:00, US employment data at 14:30 and the Chicago PMI at 15:45.

 

Transaction Tax in Hong Kong

From Jan 1 a Transaction Levy of at 0.00015% per side is charged, rounded to 1 Cent.

HKEX notice:

https://www.hkex.com.hk/-/media/HKEX-Market/Services/Circulars-and-Notices/Participant-and-Members-Circulars/SEHK/2021/ce_SEHK_CT_086_2021.pdf

Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:

HGF2, RRF2, SILF2, XKF2, ZLF2, ZMF2 and ZSF2 will expire 30th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT. RBF2 will expire 31st December 2021 at 16:00 GMT. WMF2 will expire 4th January 2022 at 01:00 GMT.

Expiring CFDs:

OILUKFEB22 will expire 30th December 2021 at 16:00 GMT.  GASOILUKJAN22 will expire 10th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.

Have a great start into 2022!

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Chief Macro Strategist

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.