Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Morning Brew February 18 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Worries on Ukraine persist
Good Morning,
Ukraine remains the key focus still with contradicting signals. Russia states it is withdrawing troops from the area but is seems difficult to confirm while tensions between separatists and Kiyv are rising, Russia says it is deeply concerned. Acc to Reuters there have been 60 ceasefire violations with one injured.
The unclear developments weighed on Risk sentiment yesterday and I would expect them to remain the key driver today as well. Just now, Indexes are rising again on reports of Russian units returning to base.
The Dow lost 1.8% yesterday, the S&P 500 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.9%, over night, Futures are currently up 0.6%.
Gold and Silver remain strong, Gold touched the 1900 for the first time in 8 months and Silver is approaching the 24,00. Watch 1915 in gold for the next step on of the move to 2000. The USD Index is fairly calm below the 96 level and 10 year yields at 2.00. EURUSD is trading at 1.1380 and GBPUSD rose above 1.36 again. The UK Retail sales could be important here.
Bitcoin fell to near 40.000 again.
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard was rather hawkish yesterday stating that it would be warranted to raise rates by a full percentage point over the next three meetings. That implies a hike by 50 basis points in the March meeting and the two following ones. Loretta Mester made similar remarks.
Nvidia fell 7.5% with worries on the crypto exposure and disappointing margins being cited as the reasons. Albemarle fell almost 20% on a disappointing outlook and Doordash gained almost 11%.
G20 Finance Ministers are meeting today with limited expectations, the assumption is that they will state inflation and global tensions are ta threat to global recovery.
Key Data coming up:
UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence
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