Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 19 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning to a semi -busy week after an interesting one behind us.

Bare in mind that today is a US Market holiday

Friday, equities had closed a little lower and driven by the higher PPI. The S&P 500 lost  0.48%, the Dow 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Compared to a week ago, the US500 and the US30 are up 1%, the US tech 100 NAS 0.5, the GER40 0.4%, the Switzerland 20 +0.4%. The Japan 225 is neat the 1989 highs and looking to either form a double top or break higher.

Most interesting Stocks on Friday were Super Micro Computer at -20%, down Roku down 24% and Coinbase up almost 9%.

EUSUSD is currently trading at 1.0785, GBPUSD 1.2625 and USDJPY 150.00. Gold ans silver gained significantly on Friday but are giving up some ground this morning to trade at 2022 and 23.14 after lows of 1984 and 21.93 last week.

China is back from the Lunar holiday and reports  high spending at levels higher than 2019, the PBOC left rates unchanged this morning,

Focus this seek seems to be fully on Nvidia earnings as can be seen in the nervous moves in AI related stocks. Cathie Woods stated that while she believed the AI Boom is real, she was still selling Nvidia, on Saturday the earnings by Berkeshire Hathaway will be closely watched.

The Earnings are being releases on Wednesday after the close, making the evening the most important time of this week – the FOMC will also be releases.

Today has the potential to be a quiet day with the US on holiday, but geopolitical risk remain high and an article on Bloomberg on a possible looming credit event  could cause nervousness.

Monday

- Data Sweden CPI, US Holiday
- Earnings:

Tuesday
- Data, China Rates, Canada CPI,
 - Earnings: BHP, Air Liquide, Medtronic, Wallmart. Palo Alto, Home Depot

Wednesday
- Data, EU Consumer confidence,  Fed Minutes
- Earnings: HSBC, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Analog Devices, NVIDIA; Synopsis, BAE Systems

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial jobless claims,
- Earnings: Zurich Insurance, Nestle, AXA, Booking.com, Intuit, Mercedes, Iberdrola,

Friday
- Data DE GDP, IFO,

- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CLH4 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

KCH4 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
PAH4 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

 

Expiring CFDs

COFFEENYMAR24 will expire 19 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

OILUSMAR24 will expire 16 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

PALLADIUMMAR24 will expire 20 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

COTTONMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.