Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Morning BrewFebruary 23 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: NvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidiaNvidia
Good Morning,
At the risk of boring you all, Nvidia has the markets firmly in it`s grasp rising 16% yesterday, pulling indexes to new all time highs and adding and unprecedented amount of market cap in a single day at 277 billion. Peter Garnry’s review of Nvidia’s results.
I would expect Nvidia to remain in focus today as the first option expiry after the surge comes up and then next week traders will start to look for the next topic to focus on. Most likely culprit is the PCE on the 29th which will define if the Fed has any wiggle room to touch rates. Despite it being the 1st of March next Friday, the Nonfarm Payroll will not be released until a week later.
Some levels to digest:
US 500 5086, Japan 225 39430, Germany 40 17400, US Tech 100 NAS touched 18k and is now just below.
10 Year yields are 4.33, the USD Index 103.90, EURUSD 1.0830, GBPUSD 1.2665 Gold and Silver are at 22.65 and 2019.
Charu takes a look at the impact of Nvidia on FX: The ripple effects of Nvidia's exceptional performance extend far beyond individual stocks, resonating across diverse sectors, geographies and asset classes. We look at the impact on the FX markets, where risk-on mood is pushing activity currencies AUD, NZD, SEK and GBP higher while weighing on traditional safe-havens JPY and CHF. Notable FX crosses, such as AUDJPY and NZDJPY, experienced significant gains and NZD crosses could be compelling ahead of RBNZ meeting next week. However, geopolitical developments could be key for momentum extension.
Today the calendar is fairly thin and as stated, the sentiment and digestion of Nvidia is key in my view – will the stock continue to defy gravity?
Next week, Inflation, the Middle East, China as well as earnings and more “normal” topics should reappear.
Friday
- Data DE GDP, IFO,
- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz
Monday
- Data US New Home Sales
- Earnings:
Tuesday
- Data Japan CPI, US Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence
- Earnings: Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Starbucks, UPS
Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI, EU Consumer Confiddence, US GDP
- Earnings:
Thursday
- Data CH FX Reserves, DE Unemployment Rate, US PCE, Initial Jobless claims
- Earnings:
Friday
- Data International PMI, NO Nonfarm Payroll
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