Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew January 17 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Yields drive Marktes
Good Morning
US Yields remain the market driver, 10 year yields broke to above 4% to trade at 4.06, this pulls the USD Index higher to currently 103.56, above the 200day moving average. EURUSD falls below the 1.09 to 1.0855, GBPUSD 1.26 and USDJPY 147.80. Gold and Silver fall to 2018 and 22.67, Bitcoin 42800
Equity indexes are under pressure with the the US 500 at 4744, the US 30 37237, the US Tech 100 Nas at 16715 and the GER40 16410. .
Chris Waller stated the US was within striking distance of the 2% inflation goal, but the central bank should not rush towards cuts in its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained.
Goldman Sachs reported very good earnings and the stock ended up 0.7% while Morgan Stanley lost 4.2% on weaker than expected numbers.
AMD gained 8.3%, Nvidia 3%. Apple falls 1.2% on the discounts for iPhones in China for IPhones, this leaves Microsoft the world`s most valuable company. Boeing remained under pressure
Spirit Airlines fell 47% on news that a merger with JetBlu was violating anticompetitive laws.
Chinese Data came weak overnight, the GDP fell short of expectations with 5.2% vs 5.3% expected and Retail Sales at 7.4% vs 8% expected key events now are the UK CPI at 8:00 CET, EU HICP at 11, expected at 2.9% and the US retail sales at 14:30 CET with a rise of 0.4% expected.
Besides these data releases, the Middle East and Davos remain in focus. Among others, Javier Milei, Christine Lagarde, Emmanuel Macron and David Cameron will address the forum.
Wednesday
- Data China GDP, Retail Sales, UK CPI, EU HICP, US Retail Sales,
- Earnings: Alcoa, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp,
Thursday
- Data Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed,
- Earnings: TSMC,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales EU Consumer Confidence,
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...