Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quo Vadis
Good morning,
The last trading day under the Biden Administration has arrived - Monday is a US Market holiday and Tuesday the new administration will be in power.
Today, there is little on the agenda that should be severely market-moving. The EU inflation data at 11 CET and the US industrial production figures could be of interest if there is a significant surprise, but normally they aren't. We could either see a rather dull day, profit-taking ahead of the inauguration, or FOMO to be in position for a move higher.
Charu wrote a great article what do expect in the near future:
What does Trump’s Inauguration Mean for Your Portfolio?
Volatility Is Inevitable. Don’t Panic. Market swings are common during times of political change, such as Trump's inauguration. Investors should evaluate their portfolios, assess their risk exposure, and maintain a balanced mix of investments to weather both market rallies and downturns.
Watch Sectors Likely to Move. Trump's proposed policies could benefit certain sectors like infrastructure, industrials, and financials, while others like healthcare and technology might face challenges. Investors should assess opportunities in sectors that align with their long-term strategy.
Think Beyond the Headlines. Markets don't always respond predictably to news about trade wars, tax policies, or deregulation. Investors should focus on fundamentals, invest in strong companies, use dollar-cost averaging, and keep cash reserves to take advantage of opportunities during market dips.
Yesterday, we saw a consolidation day where yields receded a little, Equities traded a little lower with the Dow giving up 0.16%, the S&P -0.21%, and the Nasdaq -0.89%, Apple fell behind in China`s sales stats and the share fell 4% while on the positive side3, Morgan Stanley came with stellar results, more than doubling it`s profit and gained 4%-.
The Dax is at new all time highs with it`s eyes on the 21k!
Christopher Waller spoke dovish as inflation was likely to continue to ease, the incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, advocated for the USD to remain the world's reserve currency, the Fed remain independent tougher sanctions on Russia.
Israel is apparently willing to approve the ceasefire deal with Hamas and
In the US, TiktTok is center of attention as 160 Users are fearing a shutdown.
Over night we had good data out of China where the GDP came at 5.4% vs 5% expected and Retail Sales 3.7% vs 3.5% expected. Just now the UK published disappointing retail sales at 3.6% vs 4.2% expected.
The Pund fell to 1.2180, the USD Index is at 109.20, EURUSD 1.0280 USDJPY 155.60. Traders expect a 25 basis point rate hike next week with 80% probability
Bitcoin rose above 100k yesterday and Gold breached the 2700 again, Silver needs to tackle the 31 for more upside potential, currently we are trading at 30.65.
Let us see what the day brings!
Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet
Physically Settled Futures
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Quarterly Outlook
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy