Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew January 24 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Another S&P Record into Tesla Earnings
Good Morning
We had a great presentation with Steen on the outlook for markets in Zürich yesterday and still have some seats left for Geneva tonight. If you want to know why the Fed may cut more than traders believe, join us: Outrageous Predictions 2024 Geneva | Saxo Bank (home.saxo)
Equities were a little mixed yesterday as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ printed new record highs. Earnings were mixed as well, with Netflix beating subscriber numbers after the bell and P&G gaining 4.6 while 3m and J&J disappointing and falling 11 and 1.6% respectively.
At the moment the US500 is at 48777, the US 30 37935 and the US tech 100 NAS 17490 and the GER40 16736. US Yields are trading in decent swings, today between 4.07 and 4.15 and the Dollar follows. The USD Index is currently trading at 1.0860, Cable 1.27 and USDJPY 148. The Yen saw massive swings yesterday to end up where we started.
Gold is holding at 2026 and Silver is trading higher at 22.45, Ole commented on Silver and Copper
In Episode 4 of 'Saxo Options Talk,' Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Siks explore long call spreads, offering essential insights for both novice and experienced traders.
For today we expect international PMI and Tesla earnings after the bell as the key event. Tomorrow and Friday are likely to be the key days with the ECB and the Turkish central bank, the German IFO, US Durable Goods, GDP and Initial jobless claims, on Friday the Feds key inflation measure will be releases.
Please see Charu’s outlook for the ECB: ECB likely to push more firmly against aggressive easing expectations The European Central Bank will announce its next policy decision on January 25 and no change is expected to policy rates. However, the discrepancy in the Bank’s expectation of the rate curve and that of the market remains a key debate.
Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade, International PMI,
- Earnings: AT&T SAP, Tesla, IBM, Servicenow,
Thursday
- Data DE IFO, Norway, Turkey and EU Rate decision, US Durable Goods, GDP ,
- Earnings: American Airlines, Blackstone, Intel, Visa, T-Mobile
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, PPI, US PCE
- Earnings: American Express,
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