Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew January 29 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Busy week ahead again
Good Morning
On Friday the PCE showed an Inflation slightly below expectation in the US but this failed to excite markets and the positive impact was squared by a plunge in Intel by 12% after a much weaker outlook.
The S&P 500 lost -0.07%, the Nasdaq -0.4% the Dow gained 0.16%, for the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, the Nasdaq -0.94% and the Dow gained 0.65%
There was no major shift in 10year yields but the expectation for December is now 165 bps blow the current level., there is 50% chance of a cut sat the March meeting but by September, rate traders see the fed having cut by more than 1%.
Focus is again turning to the middle east after three US Soldiers were killed in a drone attack in Jordan and commodities trader Trafigura announced was assessing the security risks of further Red Sea passages after Houthi attack.
After due to the tensions, Oil, Gold and Silver trade higher at 78.15, 2030 and 22.98. The USD Index is meandering the 103.50 EURUSD 1.0843, GBPUSD 1.2708 and USDJPY 147.88.
China Evergrande has been ordered into liquidation by a Hong Kong court, analysts agree it will not be easy to dismantle the behemoth with 300 bio in liabilities.
After the data is before the data and we are looking at a very busy week. Highlights will be the JOLTS Job openings tomorrow, the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, Tech Earnings on Tuesday and Thursday as well as the Non-Farm Payroll on Friday.
Monday
- Data Sweden GDP
Tuesday
- Data JP Unemployment , AU Retail Sales. CH KOF Indicator, European GDPs, JOLTS Job Openings US Consumer Confidence
- Earnings: Microsoft Corp, Alphabet Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Starbucks, UPS
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI, China PMI, DE Unemployment & CPI, CA GDP, US Rate decision
- Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Novartis, Mastercard, QUALCOMM, Novo Nordisk
Thursday
- Data JP& China PMI, Sweden Rate decision, International PMI, US Initial Jobless claims
- Earnings: Sanofi, Honeywell, Shell, Meta Platforms, Merck, Amazon, Roche, Apple
Friday
- Data US Nonfarm Payrolls
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