Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Morning Brew July 1 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning and welcome to Q3
Calm but strong start into Q3
Equities start in to the month friendly but with smaller moves, most significantly the S&P can record the 5th consecutive record while European equities seem locked in place. The Dow gained 0.6% yesterday, the Nasdaq 0.2% and the S&P 0.1%.
The USD Index rose to 92.40 while 10 Year rates remain near 1.5%. Bitcoin trades at 34400 and Gold and silver could move off the lower end of their trading range to currently 1775 and 26.15. EURUSD trades near support at 1.1847 and GBPUSD seems to be testing the 1.38 soon.
Ole Reports on the Grains: the USDA shocked the grain market when it published its quarterly stocks and annual acreage reports. The combination of lower than expected stocks and US farmers planting less acreage, thereby reducing the prospect of replenish stocks at a time of rising weather worries, helped send the Bloomberg Grains Spot index higher by 6.4% on the day.
In Japan the Tankan survey disappointed and the Nikkei traded 0.3% lower.
Key events today will be various PMI and US Initial Jobless claims, with a large surprise the German retail sales or the Swiss CPI at 8:30 could be interesting. Tomorrow, we are expecting the nonfarm payroll at 14:30 CET before a long US weekend. On Monday the 5th of July US Markets will be closed as the 4th falls on a Sunday. Watch out for possible profit taking ahead of the weekend.
- Didl opened at USD 16.65 but retreated to near the IPO price at USD 14 and closed at USD 14.15
- Credit Suisse will look to decide a future strategy before the end of the year, either alone or as part of a larger group .
- Trump's company and its CFO were indicted yesterday
- According to a UN Report, tourism will only fully recover in 2023
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Big Mf Idx | Q2 | 15 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI | Q2 | 18 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx | Q2 | 3 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan All Big Capex Est | Q2 | 7.2% | Percent |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Small Mf Idx | Q2 | -5 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI | Q2 | -3 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx | Q2 | -9 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI | Q2 | -8 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Tankan All Sm Capex Est | Q2 | -2.6% | Percent |
1 Jul 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
1 Jul 2021 | 02:30 | South Korea | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
1 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | May | 10,000M | AUD |
1 Jul 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Mfg PMI Final | Jun | 51.8 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
1 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | Riksbank Rate | 1 Jul | 0.00% | Percent |
1 Jul 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | Jun | 62.2 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | Jun | 58.6 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | Jun | 64.9 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | Jun | 63.1 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | Jun | 64.2 | Index (diffusion) |
1 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | Jun | Percent | |
1 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | May | 8.0% | Percent |
1 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 26 Jun, w/e | 390k | Person |
1 Jul 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
1 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
1 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 61.0 | Index |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | May | 1.7% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | May | 25.0% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jun | 700k | Person |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 5.7% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jun | 3.6% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | May | -71.4B | USD |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | May | 0.37B | CAD |
2 Jul 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | May | 1.6% | Percent |
5 Jul 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Building Approvals | May | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | May | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | USD | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Jun | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 06:30 | Australia | RBA Cash Rate | Jul | 0.10% | Percent |
6 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | May | Percent | |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Jul | Net balance | |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Current Conditions | Jul | Net balance | |
6 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 6 Jul, w/e | USD | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 63.0 | Index |
7 Jul 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | NZD | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | May | Percent | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jun | Percent | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | NOK | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | EUR | |
7 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jun | CHF | |
7 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | May | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
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