Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 13 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Equities at record highs - Is there more room?


Good Morning

Equities continues their ascent and close at records, the Dow gains 0.36%, the S&P 500 0.35% and the  Nasdaq +0.21%, Ger30 closes above 15700, breaking it’s wedge and now has room to the 16000 technically.All three US Indexes are at record levels. 

Tesla gained 4% yesterday and today we are expecting earnings of  DNB, Pepsi, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and First Republic Bank. Based on IBES data, a rise of 66% in overall earnings is expected for the 500 companies in the S&P 500.

According to Reuters calculations, the cost of hedging against a 3-standard deviation move in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is higher than about 90% of the time over the last five years.

US 10 year Interest Rates rise to near 1.4% and the USD Index to 92.25. Bitcoin remains in the 30k-40k range, currently at 32800. Gold and Silver can gain to 1806 and 26.20 and are a little removed from recent lows.

Besides the earnings, the US CPI should be the main event of the day and we continue to keep a close eye on central banks as the key driver behind the rally, also the US Senate has returned from it’s holiday and working on the infrastructure deal.

 

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

13 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

HICP Final YY

Jun

2.1%

13 Jul 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jun

0.2%

13 Jul 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jun

1.9%

13 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jun

0.5%

13 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Exports YY

Jun

23.1%

13 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Imports YY

Jun

30.0%

13 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Trade Balance USD

Jun

44.20B

14 Jul 2021

04:00

New Zealand

Cash Rate

14 Jul

0.25%

14 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

CPI YY

Jun

2.2%

14 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jun

0.1%

14 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Jul

19.00%

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Jul

14 Jul 2021

16:00

Canada

BoC Rate Decision

14 Jul

0.25%

15 Jul 2021

03:00

South Korea

Bank of Korea Base Rate

Jul

15 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Employment

Jun

30.0k

15 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Unemployment Rate

Jun

5.0%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jun

12.1%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jun

7.8%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jun

11.0%

15 Jul 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

GDP YY

Q2

8.1%

15 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Claimant Count Unem Chng

Jun

15 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

ILO Unemployment Rate

May

4.7%

15 Jul 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jun

0.2%

15 Jul 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jun

1.3%

15 Jul 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

15 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

10 Jul, w/e

360k

15 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Philly Fed Business Indx

Jul

28.3

15 Jul 2021

15:15

United States

Industrial Production MM

Jun

0.7%

16 Jul 2021

00:45

New Zealand

CPI QQ

Q2

16 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final MM

Jun

0.3%

16 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Final YY

Jun

1.9%

16 Jul 2021

14:15

Canada

House Starts, Annualized

Jun

270.0k

16 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Retail Sales MM

Jun

16 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Jul

86.5

16 Jul 2021

Japan

JP BOJ Rate Decision

16 Jul

-0.10%

(Refinitiv)


Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.