Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew July14 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Wild Moves - What!`s next
Good Morning,
With the PPI up only 0.1%, the strong sentiment continued in what looks like a bit of a meltup.
The Dow ends up 0.1%, S&P 500, 0.9%, Nasdaq up 1.6% the NY FANG Index including Apple, Meta, Snowflake, AMD Microsoft Tesla, Amazon Netflix Alphabet and Nvidia is at a new all time high, up 90% on the year.
Asian stocks rose for a fifth straight day on Friday, on course for their best week this year acc to Reuters.
10 Year US rates dropped to 3.77, 2 year 4.65 – the USD Index drops below 100 to trade 99.75, EURUSD breache 1.12, GBPUSD 1.31 and USDJPY fell below 138. Gold rose to 1958 and Silver 24.80.
- Our Strats have been busy:
Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY – Are the corrections over? - FX Update: USD breakdown likely set to extend.
- Crude oil in buoyant mood
- Technical Update - Nasdaq 100 breaking key strong resistance, eyeing 16K. S&P 500 extending uptrend towards +4,500
- Technical Update - EURUSD testing key resitance, eyeing 1.15. GBPUSD above 1.30 looking at 1.33. Dollar Index below key support
There is little Key economic data out today, US Import Prices will be released at 14:30 and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 16:00. Sentiment after the recent wild moves will be key, also the earnings of JP Morgan, Statestreet, Citi, Wells Fargo and Blackrock will be closely watched.
Our Koen explains how a covered call strategy on PepsiCo can be set up after strong earnings yesterday..
Investing with Options - PepsiCo Covered Call
The Market is very difficult to read – we are stretched in many equities, the USD is technically oversold but there are also good reasons for the trends to continue or to take a break rather than reversing. Remember that one of the most important rules in trading is to not only consider what happens when you are right but also when you are wrong - Live to trade another day
Earnings next week:
- Tuesday: Bank of America, Novartis, Morgan Stanley, Prologis, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, PNC Financial, Bank of NY Mellon
- Wednesday: Tesla, ASML, Netflix, IBM, Elevance Health, Goldman Sachs
- Thursday: TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, SAP, Blackstone, CSX, ABB, Freeport-McMoran
- Friday: American Express, Schlumberger
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...