Morning Brew July 15 2024

Good morning,

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump may well have won him the election. His strong reaction and the placement of pictures in social media showing him bleeding under the US flag showed him very presidentially. Markets are calm this morning. The big winner over the weekend is Bitcoin trading 10% higher. Donald Trump announced he would attend the Nashville Bitcoin conference despite the attempt on his life, also Elon Musk’s endorsement of him may fuel hopes of crypto friendly regulation.

If Trump returns to the white house, he expected to:

- be hawkish on trade
- focus less on ESG and overall less regulation,
- lowering taxes at the cost of more debt.
- not extend the term of Jerome Powell.

Joe Biden stated he would stay in the race. The last polls showed fairly even odds between trump and Biden, the next one will be very interesting though – After Reagan was shoat, he went up 22 points in the polls.

Friday was a risk on day in everything except for precious metals.

Basically, all indexes rose, starting with the Russel 2000 which ended the week with the best performance this year, the big three US Indexes added app 0.5% on Friday and unt S&P 500 added 0.9% for the week, the Dow +1.5% and the Nasdaq 0.2%. The GER 40 has all-time highs in view, it closed the week at 18711.

EURUSD closed the week at above 1.09 and GBPUSD at above 1.29. The Bank of Japan was busy and USDJPY ended at 157.80.

The week will be driven by the US presidential race, Earnings, decently important data and the EU rate decision, also China will be worth keeping an eye on, the plenum to set longer term economic and social policies has started today as we received massively disappointing data.

Any action on rates by the ECB would be a huge surprise, the probability is 95% they will not change the rates on Thursday, rate traders are expecting slightly less than two cuts this year (-45 bps) while after the weak US Data we are at -65 BPS in the US – explaining the rise in EURUSD. EURCHF has also been rising since a month ago and is worth watching.

Monday

- Data  China GDP& Retail Sales
- Earnings: Blackrock,
Tuesday
- Data IT CPI, DE ZEW, US Import Prices & Retails Sales, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Bank of America, Unitedhealth, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Statestreet,. Interactive Brokers,
Wednesday
- Data Japan Tankan, AU CPI, UK CPI, US Housing starts & Industrial Production
- Earnings: ASML, US Bancorp, United, Alcoa, KinderMorgan,

Thursday
- Data UK Labor data, ECB Rate decision, Initial Jobless claims & Philly Fed Business
- Earnings: TSMC, Nokia, Netflix,
Friday
- Data Japan JPI, UK retail Sales.

- Earnings:  American Express, Halliburton, Travelers,