Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew July 2 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Waiting for the Nonfarm and the long US Weekend
All eyes are on the nonfarm payroll at 14:30 today with expected 700k and an unemployment rate of 5.7%. A strong number would make a hawkish stance by the Fed more likely. Also As Monday is a market holiday in the US as the 4th of July is on Sunday, we could see some profit taking of position reductions ahead of the weekend. In the afternoon we expect the outcome of the delayed Opec + meeting.
Equities are overall friendly with the Futures on Dax at 15608 the Dow at 34545, the S&P at 4311 and the Nasdaq 100 at 14518.
The USD Index fell briefly yesterday but quickly recovered to 92.54, 10 year rates remain at 1.46 and Bitcoin retreated to 32800.
EURUSD is at 1.1840, near the lower end of the recent range, GBPUSD at 1.3760 and Gold and Silver at 1776 and 26.03.
The overall reaction after the Non-Farms will be interesting. After the last Fed meeting, the movement in FX was driven by rates while equity traders locked in on the QE and therefore the reaction was not in line.
Trade carefully and consider optionality if you are looking to take a bet on the numbers, Volatility remains cheap.
Headlines:
130 Countries back the 15% minimum corporate Tax.
The US stated that the Chinese nuclear arsenal was becoming concerning.
Robin Hood is looking for at USD 40 Bio valuation in the IPO
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | May | 1.7% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | May | 25.0% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jun | 700k | Person |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 5.7% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jun | 3.6% | Percent |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | May | -71.4B | USD |
2 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | May | 0.37B | CAD |
2 Jul 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
2 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | May | 1.6% | Percent |
5 Jul 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Building Approvals | May | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | May | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | USD | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Jun | Percent | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
5 Jul 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 06:30 | Australia | RBA Cash Rate | Jul | 0.10% | Percent |
6 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | May | Percent | |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Jul | Net balance | |
6 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Current Conditions | Jul | Net balance | |
6 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 6 Jul, w/e | USD | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Jun | Index (diffusion) | |
6 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jun | 63.0 | Index |
7 Jul 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | NZD | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | May | Percent | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jun | Percent | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | NOK | |
7 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | EUR | |
7 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jun | CHF | |
7 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | May | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
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