Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew July 20 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will the selloff continue
Good Morning
Equities had their worst day in 7 months but US and European Indexes can stabilize overnight. Yields dropped (US 10year broke the 1.20 to the downside) Bitcoin broke below the 30 mark and the USD Index is nearing 93. EURUSD trades 1.1780 and GBPUSD 1.3660. Gold and Silver trade at 25.15 and 1815.
Main reason cited is fear of the delta variant that is on the rise and may prevent a recovery as strong as hoped. n China, a troubled large property developer is more and more in trouble. While social media was full of doom and gloom comments, looking at the longer term moving averages, the uptrends in equities are not yet in any real dangers, shorter term, there is room for the downside (Dax closed below initial support and could fall to 14800) A bit worrying is there seems to be real danger of stagflation.
Markets movements will be largely driven by sentiment, there is not too much in terms of economic data, the Japanese June core inflation came at 0.2%, exactly on expectations and the most important earning release of the date was UBS with a strong result. UBS profit jumps 63% on strong wealth management and is 50% above analyst expectations. Netflix will follow later today.
At 14:30 CET US Housing starts are the only significant economic release.
Safe Trading
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jun | 0.2% |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Nationwide | Jun | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | High | Milk Auctions | 20 Jul, w/e | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Housing Starts Number | Jun | 1.590M |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Exports YY | Jun | 46.2% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Imports YY | Jun | 29.0% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Trade Balance Total Yen | Jun | 460.0B |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Consumer Confidence | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jul | 0.00% |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Deposit Rate | Jul | -0.50% |
22 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jul, w/e | |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 5.90M |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Flash | Jul | -2.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales YY | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Services PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | High | Retail Sales MM | May | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
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